Support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but nearly two years after the full-scale invasion barely 10 percent believe it can defeat Russia, an EU-wide survey showed — with some form of “compromise settlement” seen as the most likely end point.
The shift in sentiment — this time last year, more Europeans than not said Ukraine must regain all its lost territory — would demand that politicians take a more “realistic” approach that focuses on defining what an acceptable peace must actually mean, the report said.
“In order to make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change how they talk about the war,” said coauthor Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, which commissioned the polling.
Photo: Reuters
Most Europeans “are desperate to prevent a Russian victory,” but do not believe Kyiv can win militarily, meaning that the most convincing argument for an increasingly skeptical public was that continuing aid “could lead to a sustainable, negotiated peace that favors Kyiv — rather than a victory for Putin,” Leonard said.
The January polling in 12 EU member states — including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden — found that Ukraine’s stalled counteroffensive, growing fears of a US policy shift and the prospect of a second US presidential term for Donald Trump were fueling pessimism about the war’s outcome.
It was carried out before Ukraine’s retreat over the weekend from the eastern town of Avdiivka, which handed Russia its most significant military victory since the capture of Bakhmut by Wagner Group troops in May last year. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
The report, Wars and Elections: How European Leaders Can Maintain Public Support for Ukraine, found that only one in 10 Europeans across the 12 countries surveyed believed Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20 percent) predicted a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic member states surveyed — Poland, Sweden and Portugal — fewer than one in five (17 percent) believed Kyiv could prevail.
In all countries, the most common opinion, shared by an average of 37 percent of respondents, was that the war would end in a compromise settlement — although some countries were keener on that outcome than others, the polling showed.
In Sweden (50 percent), Portugal (48 percent) and Poland (47 percent), respondents were more likely to say Europe should help Ukraine fight back, while in Hungary (64 percent), Greece (59 percent), Italy (52 percent) and Austria (49 percent), they preferred pushing Kyiv to accept a settlement. In France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, opinions were more evenly divided.
The polling yielded evidence that many Europeans increasingly consider Russia’s war against Ukraine to be of direct concern to them, with 33 percent saying it had a greater effect on their country — and on Europe (29 percent) — than the war in the Middle East (compared with 5 percent who said the opposite on both counts).
Regarding the possible return of Trump to the White House, 56 percent of respondents across the 12 countries surveyed said they would be very or fairly disappointed if the former president was re-elected.
Ivan Krastev, the report’s other coauthor, said the biggest danger was that Trump — and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has hinted that he is open to negotiations on his terms — “try to portray Ukraine and its backers as the ‘forever war’ party, while they claim the mantle of ‘peace.’”
A Russian victory “is not peace”, said Krastev, who is chair of the Sofia-based Centre for Liberal Strategies think tank. “If the price of ending the war is turning Ukraine into a no-man’s-land, this will be a defeat not only for Kyiv, but for Europe and its security.”
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