Zimbabwe’s election looks to be over before it has even started.
A deeply divided opposition, hobbled by a slew of court cases, has struggled to capitalize on public outrage about the near-collapse of government services, triple-digit inflation and rampant poverty. That has put 80-year-old Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa in pole position to win the election on Wednesday.
The integrity of the contest has been called into question, with Amnesty International accusing the government of undermining civil liberties over the past five years, helping entrench the incumbent’s dominance. The watchdog also criticized Zimbabwe’s so-called Patriotic Bill that came into force last month and makes it illegal to willfully injure the nation’s sovereignty and national interests, saying it further criminalizes dissent.
Photo: EPA-EFE
“The odds are stacked against the opposition,” Pretoria-based think tank the Institute for Security Studies said.
The government has “weaponized the law,” used non-violent coercion to intimidate people into supporting it and taken credit for government-funded programs, it said.
Winning a tainted election might derail efforts by Mnangagwa, who has held power since longtime president Robert Mugabe was ousted in a 2017 coup, to restructure the nation’s US$18 billion of debt arrears. Creditors including the African Development Bank have warned that any deal would be contingent on a credible contest.
“There would be very little sympathy in terms of debt relief” or other help from the West if the vote is compromised, said Stephen Chan, a professor of world politics at the SOAS University of London.
The government rejected Amnesty’s findings and Mnangagwa has pledged that the election would be free and fair. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has ruled Zimbabwe since it gained independence from the UK in 1980.
Almost half of 2,400 Zimbabweans polled by pan-African survey company Afrobarometer in April and May said they do not expect the election results to reflect how citizens voted and most anticipate violence after the ballot. An earlier poll of 1,000 voters commissioned by the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation and conducted by the Sabi Strategy Group, found the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) party would win a fair contest.
The latest legal broadside against the opposition occurred in Bulawayo, where the Zimbabwean High Court declared 12 CCC members ineligible to run. A higher court subsequently overturned the ruling, which would have left the party without any candidate lawmakers in the nation’s second-largest city, but the wrangling has detracted from their campaigns.
The courts disqualified former ZANU-PF Cabinet minister Saviour Kasukuwere, and Linda Masarira, who were among 11 contenders vying to replace Mnangagwa, from running. The country’s national election commission barred 87 candidates from the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) from standing because their nomination fee was not paid on time, prompting the opposition party to declare a boycott of the election.
“We can’t take part in this farce,” its leader Douglas Mwonzora said.
Chief elections officer Uloitile Silaigwana insisted that Mwonzora would still appear on the ballot paper because he did not give adequate notice of his withdrawal. The electoral commission has always acted with the law, and was not prejudiced against any party, he said.
Infighting within the opposition has not helped its cause.
The MDC split last year after Mwonzora won control of the party from Nelson Chamisa, who went on to form the CCC.
ZANU-PF has sought to downplay the economy’s travails during its campaign and highlight the progress it has made in developing new roads, dams and other infrastructure.
University of Zimbabwe economics professor Tony Hawkins sees the election having little impact on the economy, with Western nations and donors loathe to engage with the government irrespective of the outcome.
“The election is a non-event,” he said. “It’s already decided.”
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