Elections tomorrow in Taiwan’s diplomatic ally Paraguay could decide whether the party that has governed the country for seven decades is replaced by a broad opposition coalition that has mounted a strong challenge amid discontent over health, schools and corruption.
The elections for president and Congress could also have geopolitical implications, as Paraguay is the only country in South America that has formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and the opposition coalition has vowed to review that relationship.
The landlocked country, which has a relatively stable economy despite high levels of poverty and corruption, has been immune to the political change and social movements that have swept the region.
Photo: Reuters
However, analysts have said that the political landscape could be due for upheaval given that popular anger has been high over corruption and deficiencies in the health and education systems.
Paraguayan Liberal Party leader Efrain Alegre is the presidential candidate for the opposition coalition that has united disparate parties in their desire to oust the long-governing Colorado Party, led by Paraguayan President Mario Abdo Benitez, who cannot run for another term under the country’s constitution.
Santiago Pena, a former Paraguayan minister of finance and is the Colorado presidential candidate, is a former aide to powerful former Paraguayan president Horacio Cartes, who has been accused of corruption and links to terrorism by the US.
The Colorado Party is South America’s longest-ruling political party, essentially governing Paraguay since 1947.
“This is a very unique electoral process,” George Washington University political science professor Diego Abete Brun said. “There are two competing visions. One to continue with a 70-year hegemonic system, and the other a coalition project, an unprecedented political experiment in Paraguay that has joined together different parties from the center-right to the left.”
Although all signs point to a close election, Abete Brun said he sees “more wind in favor of the opposition.”
As for Taiwan, Alegre has said Paraguay’s relationship with Taipei is too costly.
“Paraguay is making a significant effort, despite being a small country, by choosing to maintain relations with Taiwan instead of pursuing opportunities with China. We do not see Taiwan making a similar effort,” Alegre told reporters. “We believe that this relationship is unfair, and as a result, we have a critical stance.”
Pena has defended Paraguay’s relationship with Taiwan, but said he would seek more trade with China, without explaining how that would come about.
“Paraguay must insert itself in the world, in all the markets, including the Chinese market of 1.4 billion people,” Pena said.
Alegre, a 60-year-old lawyer, is making his third bid for the presidency, although this time he is representing a mix of political parties that all call for an end to Colorado’s reign.
“People are convinced that change will come on April 30, and that we will begin a new era in Paraguay,” Alegre said. “This isn’t just one election, it’s not just for five years. It’s about an exhausted system and the need to reclaim the true Paraguay.”
The responsibility for ensuring the continuity of the Colorado Party falls on Pena, who was finance minister in the Cartes government from 2013 to 2018 and, until recently, a member of the board of Banco Basa, a local bank owned by the former president.
Pena’s presidential campaign was hit by US economic sanctions against Cartes for alleged bribery and ties to Hezbollah, which the US designated as a terrorist organization.
The US Department of State said Cartes is “one of the wealthiest individuals in Paraguay” and has “engaged in a concerted pattern of corruption, including widespread bribery of government officials and legislators.”
The sanctions blocked Cartes, who is president of the Colorado Party, from accessing the US financial system, and cut off funding and loans for the party’s campaign.
“The sanctions have been lethal,” Abete Brun said. “Cartes was the financing chief of the Colorado Party. The cash box was left empty.”
Pena said the accusations against Cartes “are groundless.”
One key factor in the election will be turnout, considering that on average only about 60 percent of Paraguayans go to the polls.
The low participation numbers are at least in part due to the “Paraguayan migrant population in Argentina, Spain and the United States that, despite having the legal right to vote, does not,” historian Milda Rivarola said.
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