Concerns are mounting in Germany about a rapidly growing and hard to predict fourth wave of COVID-19 this fall, as the German government is in transition and flatlining vaccination rates lag behind those in the rest of western Europe.
An increasingly mobile population, a largely dismantled pop-up testing infrastructure and reduced staffing at hospitals have led some experts to warn that the government is facing a resurgent virus with less resolve than at previous stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I am not relaxed about it,” said Hendrick Streeck, director of the institutes of virology and HIV research at Bonn University. “Capacity at intensive care units is reduced; we may have to factor in another influenza wave. Our grasp of the dynamic behind the infections is not great, but we have higher mobility,” Streeck said.
Mask-wearing remains high in Germany, but COVID-19 vaccinations have stalled. Germany’s disease control agency has warned of a “growing likelihood of infectious contacts” after reporting an incidence rate of 145 new infections per 100,000 residents — the highest recorded since May.
More people in Germany are infected with the virus than at the same point last year: Government’s data show that 205,700 people were infectious on Friday, compared with 131,541 people on Oct. 29 last year.
At 75, the rolling seven-day average of deaths linked to the coronavirus in Germany is also higher than a year ago, when it was 44.
The number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care beds is roughly on a par with last year’s levels, with 1,868 patients registered on Friday.
Last fall, cases kept on rising in spite of “lockdown light” restrictions, until hospital bed occupancy peaked, with about 5,700 cases being treated in the first week of January.
The German Ministry of Health said it was confident that clinics would not have to invoke triage, when acute care cannot be provided to every patient in need because of lack of resources.
While levels of compliance with hygiene restrictions such as mask-wearing on public transport is high, Germany and its southern neighbor Austria lag behind other western European nations on vaccination rates.
Sixty-six per cent of Germany’s population is fully vaccinated, compared with 68 percent in France, 71 percent in Italy and 80 percent in Spain.
Unlike some of its neighbors, Germany opted against making vaccination mandatory for specific sectors of industry.
A survey commissioned by the health ministry suggests the rate of vaccinations is unlikely to improve in the near future: Sixty-five percent of those who have so far refused the jab said they would “in no way” take a vaccine in the next two months, while a further 23 percent said they would “probably not” let themselves be immunized.
In spite of the rising numbers, the three parties likely to make up Germany’s next government have agreed in principle to end the “epidemic situation of national relevance” by the end of this month.
However, Nov. 25 would not be a “freedom day,” as celebrated by the British government, say politicians from the Social Democratic Party, which is expected to lead the next government in a coalition with the Greens and the Free Democratic party.
While the parties say that some curbs would remain in place, they have effectively ruled out another nationwide lockdown including school closures and curfews.
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