A US-China expert last week urged Taiwan to increase military spending to at least match the US as a percentage of GDP, saying that it would be unrealistic to reach the White House’s 10 percent demand.
Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, made the remarks during a US Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Wednesday last week titled “Shared Threats: Indo-Pacific Alliances and Burden Sharing in Today’s Geopolitical Environment.”
Mastro called the situation in the Taiwan Strait unique compared with those of other US allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region, as Taiwan is the only one facing the acute threat of war with China.
Photo: Ritchie B. Tongo, EPA-EFE
“If Taiwan expects the US to help in a conflict, thereby risking major war with China, Taiwan does need to contribute more to deterring the war, and prevailing if that proves necessary,” she said.
However, Taiwan spending 10 percent of its GDP on military spending, as suggested by US undersecretary of defense for policy nominee Elbridge Colby, is likely unrealistic, especially given that total government spending accounts for only 13.7 percent of GDP, but it must still increase military funding, Mastro said.
“As a symbolic gesture, Taiwan should spend at least the same amount as the United States on defense — currently 3.4 percent of GDP,” she said.
The money that Taiwan spends on defense should go toward buying “the right weapons,” focused on asymmetric warfare instead of traditional high-cost platforms such as submarines and F-35 jets, she said.
“Taiwan should persist in acquiring large quantities of anti-air, anti-armor and anti-ship missiles, weapons that provide more value in Taiwan’s defense scenario,” she said.
Raising spending is a “political need for Taipei to show seriousness about its defense if American lives are going to be sacrificed for its defense,” Mastro added.
The imbalance of power between Taiwan and China means that Taiwan’s ability to “hold off” long enough for US forces to arrive is “the heart of deterrence,” she said.
“Taipei will never be able to defend itself completely without US assistance,” she added.
The strategy should be for Taiwan to withstand 30 days of an invasion, while US forces arrive in the region, but the US should also take steps to convince Beijing that a quick military action has no way of succeeding, she said.
“There is no scenario in which Taiwan wins a war against China without direct US military intervention,” she added.
Within the next three to four years, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is to tell Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) it is capable of taking Taiwan by force, Mastro said.
Additional reporting by CNA
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