A Canadian blogger has released an updated version of an English-language civil defense handbook to better prepare expatriates in Taiwan for natural disasters and a possible military attack.
Released earlier this month, the new version of the Resilience Roadmap: An Emergency Preparedness Guide to Expats in Taiwan (https://thecultureshack.blog/2025/03/03/update-resilience-roadmap-v2-0) contains new material to help people prepare for disasters, such as how to quickly evade toxic smoke in a fire, the guide’s creator, John Groot, said on Monday.
It also provides more information on radio communications and water purification, said Groot, who has lived in Taiwan for more than 20 years.
Photo: Chen Yun, Taipei Times
The most extensive updates were to the section titled "Analysis of Factors Related to War," in which Groot writes about potential quarantines or blockades the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could impose around Taiwan based on discussions with defense experts and other information he has gathered.
The guide was released as Tainan prepares to hold a civil defense drill on March 27.
The drill, set against the backdrop of Taiwan being on the "verge of conflict with China," is to test people’s abilities to respond to "gray zone” activities — provocative or aggressive actions that fall just short of armed conflict — including finding air raid shelters, a Taiwan security official said.
Just as the threat of a potential attack by China was what motivated him to publish the first edition of the guide in December 2023, Groot said a "major increase" in Chinese military activity around Taiwan and the PLA’s increasingly aggressive stance was a main impetus for the update.
For example, the updated analysis section discusses the China Coast Guard’s role in military exercises near Taiwan, after the PLA staged the large-scale Joint Sword 2024-A and B military drills near Taiwan and its outlying islands.
In the exercises, China Coast Guard ships carried out "law enforcement patrols" near Taiwan alongside the PLA Navy in an unprecedented move, the guide says.
“Another goal [of a blockade] might be to force foreign shipping to register with the China Coast Guard for permission to transit the Taiwan Strait or to enter or leave Taiwanese ports, thus asserting sovereignty over Taiwan," Groot wrote.
"This would be hard to respond to as Taiwan would not want to fire the first shot in an uneven conflict,” he added. “Also, the international community might see this as less problematic than a full blockade as it would not cut off commercial traffic through the Taiwan Strait.”
Given that the PLA has ramped up military activity near Taiwan over the past year, the Chinese military could quickly turn military exercises into a surprise attack, he said.
That is one of the key scenarios that is to be simulated in Taiwan's annual Han Kuang drills this year.
"Large-scale military exercises have become the 'new normal' and the PLA could pivot from exercises to real action in as little as 24 hours. Strategic strikes could be launched with no warning," Groot wrote.
Underscoring the unpredictability of war, Groot said that many "smart" people had incorrectly predicted that Russia would not launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine just days before the assault on Feb. 24, 2022.
"It's unknown, and the threat is very real," he said.
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