The government should consider mandatory military service for women given the declining birthrate, a visiting fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research said in an article published by the institute on Thursday.
Most Taiwanese are opting not to have children due to stagnant wages and the rising cost of living, leading to Taiwan becoming a hyper-aged society, Chao Yu-hsiang (趙宥翔) wrote in “Reflections of the draft system in light of declining birthrates.”
A country’s total fertility rate (TFR) — the estimated average number of children born per woman — needs to be 2.1 to ensure natural population replacement, Chao wrote.
Photo: Wang Yi-sung, Taipei Times
However, the CIA’s World Factbook report for last year had Taiwan last on its country comparisons with a TFR of 1.11, he said.
If the TFR is constantly below the natural replacement rate, the population will rapidly decline, affecting the economy, labor market and social welfare, he said.
Taiwan is expected to have 109,492 births in 2034 — down from 134,856 last year — and in 2041 the total is expected to dip below 100,000, Chao said, citing Department of Household Registration forecasts.
In 2054, the number of births is expected to be 76,917, Chao said.
Childlessness seems to be the trend in Taiwan, so the population aging issue is going to become more pronounced, he said.
Although technology and weapons are important factors in winning a battle, sufficient military personnel is even more crucial, he said.
In Ukraine, women have devoted themselves to military service since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, he said.
As of last year, about 68,000 women were in Ukraine’s armed forces, he said, citing Ukrainian Ministry of Defense data.
Sweden abolished its military draft in 2010, but reinstated it in 2018, mandating that men and women serve nine to 12 months, while Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015 and has adopted legislation to extend the conscription period, he said.
Some people believe that the military should not differentiate between the sexes and both should face the same training and wartime requirements, even if that means women are in battles or risk being taken prisoner, Chao wrote.
Taiwan’s military units are increasingly understrength, with recruitment levels decreasing nearly 10 percent since 2020, he said.
The military is in dire need of personnel, he said, adding that this was why then-president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) ordered that one-year conscription be reinstated.
The next step the military should take is to foster a gender-friendly environment and carefully assess how women serve in other countries, he said.
Making female military service compulsory is a possible solution to Taiwan’s shortage of personnel, he added.
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