A research group has called on the British government to strengthen ties with Brunei in response to growing Chinese influence in the region.
A recent report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, titled “Geopolitical Vulnerabilities of the UK’s International Military Partnerships — A Case Study Analysis,” said that Brunei’s location, within the US’ first island defense chain, and its ties with the US and the UK, makes it a key factor when considering a possible invasion of Taiwan by China.
The UK’s position in Brunei seems vulnerable, and given the latter’s position within the first island chain, China is likely to use its economic and technological influence to encourage Brunei to take its side, or at least to remove the military presence of the UK to reduce the threat of US involvement, it said.
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Brunei’s strategic location and the fact that its ruler, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, is now 76 mean there is a substantial risk that British forces might be asked to leave and be replaced by Chinese troops, greatly damaging the US’ defense strategies for Taiwan, which, in turn, would almost certainly damage Anglo-American relations, the report said.
The Southeast nation, a member of ASEAN that also has maritime claims in the South China Sea, faces the strategic challenge of navigating China-US relations as a small country with defense ties to the US and UK, and a very high degree of economic dependence on China, the report said.
Since Hong Kong’s handover to China in 1997, Brunei has been vital to the UK’s position in the Indo-Pacific region and is the one remaining British Army and Royal Air Force base in the region.
London’s failure to sell Brunei weapons in the past five years is a lost opportunity to cement the UK’s military presence there above and beyond its relationship with the Sultan, the report said.
The support of the sultan — a graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst — is one of the primary reasons for the continued UK presence there, it said.
The UK has very little economic trade with Brunei, its 136th-largest trade partner. Shell has been operating in Brunei since 1929 and is the country’s largest oil producer, but its continued dominance is not guaranteed, as evidenced by China’s taking over foreign oil concessions, especially in Iraq, the report said.
In comparison, China’s trade with the sultanate is now more than 22 times that of the UK, it said.
China is an important digital infrastructure partner for Brunei, whose 5G network is facilitated by Huawei; in addition, Brunei has signed a partnership with China to use the BeiDou navigation satellite system, although the military still uses GPS, it said.
In contrast, neither the UK nor the US has any strategically critical digital infrastructure in the sultanate, the report said.
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