Small democratic countries such as Taiwan and Lithuania must show unity and solidarity in defending the rules-based international order, and if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, hawks in Beijing would be emboldened, former Lithuanian minister of foreign affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis said in Taipei yesterday.
Landsbergis, who was foreign minister from December 2020 to November last year, spoke on “Prospects of Lithuania-Taiwan Relations and Lessons of Russia’s war on Ukraine” at the invitation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Vision Foundation.
In November 2021, Lithuania made the bold decision to allow the Taiwanese Representative Office to be opened in Vilnius, the first to use the name “Taiwan,” making global headlines, but Beijing was outraged, Landsbergis said.
Photo: Liao Cheng-hui, Taipei Times
Many countries were taken aback and believed China would crush Lithuania, he added.
However, Lithuania remains standing today with a growing economy, and its exports to China have been replaced by shipments to other countries in the Indo-Pacific region, he said, adding that many academics and other experts agree that Lithuania’s seemingly audacious defiance is fundamentally rational and logical, and more European countries are also reducing their dependence on China.
Regarding Russia’s behavior and war in Ukraine, Landsbergis said that European democracies learned that they “should have listened to those who know [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” including warnings from the Baltic states.
“Why did Lithuania dare to challenge Russia and China, countries incomparably larger and stronger? The answer is simple — in today’s increasingly anarchic global political environment, small democratic states must do two things,” he said.
“First, find any means necessary to preserve the democratic and rule-based international order. Second, to achieve this, they must remain active and punch above their weight,” he said, adding that this is similar to the views on Taiwan’s situation of many experts.
As the world is dividing into democratic and authoritarian blocs, preserving a rules-based international order is a matter of life and death for small democratic countries, because if the order collapses, they would truly become pawns in great-power games, especially those on geopolitical fault lines, Landsbergis said.
“We cannot allow that to happen. We must act proactively and decisively,” he said.
“I believe Putin’s war in Ukraine is an all-in gamble aimed at challenging Europe and the world’s security architecture, he said.
Putin’s goal of a “multipolar world” order, supported by Beijing, is nothing more than an attempt to legitimize authoritarianism, corruption, aggression and disregard for international laws on a global scale, he said.
Forcing Ukraine into negotiations with Russia to ensure peace is fundamentally flawed, as it disregards the will of the Ukrainian public, which overwhelmingly supports victory by retaining all of its territories, Landsbergis said.
Moreover, Russia has a track record of violating ceasefires and international agreements, consistently using negotiations as a tactic to advance its own aggressive agenda, he said.
“If Ukraine doesn’t win, if it is forced to negotiate and surrender its territories, it will be the entire democratic world that loses,” he said, adding that it would boost the confidence of Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang and other authoritarian regimes, and “embolden China’s aggressive strategies in the Indo-Pacific” region.
“If Russia’s strategy is perceived as successful, hawks in Beijing will not become calmer or more peaceful, but quite the opposite,” Landsbergis said, adding that authoritarians learn from each other, so Russia’s playbook in Ukraine is being studied in Beijing.
China’s actions toward Taiwan bear a striking resemblance to Russia’s tactics in Ukraine — including the use of “gray zone” activities, normalizing military incursions in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and conducting provocative operations near Taiwan, he said.
It is mirroring Russia’s strategies to pressure and destabilize Ukraine before the invasion, he said.
“A strong and united response from democratic alliances to Russia’s aggression is the only way to preserve a rule-based global order,” Landsbergis said. “By supporting Ukraine, we are simultaneously contributing to deter China’s ambition towards Taiwan.”
“Authoritarians aim to drive wedges between allies... We cannot allow that,” he said, adding that democracies must share experiences and lessons, and send a clear united message: “Democracies stand together in defending values and principles, and an attack on one democracy, no matter how small, will be met with a collective response from the global democratic community.”
Small democratic states should make preparations for deterrence, including increasing defense funding, greater efforts to combat hybrid threats, strengthening societal resilience, and demonstrating unity and solidarity in the international arena, he said.
Democracies are facing the most significant challenge — the global spread of authoritarianism — since the end of the Cold War, and inability to address it in one domain would create opportunities for stronger blows in another, so “we must respond as swift, united and robust as possible,” Landsbergis said.
“Small democratic countries like Lithuania and Taiwan must remain active, courageous and united in today’s geopolitically unstable world,” he said.
“We must stand firm in defending the rule-based democratic global order and rallying allies to preserve it,” he added.
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