China is on track to have 1,000 operational nuclear weapons by 2030 in a development likely to accelerate US nuclear arms modernization, a Taiwanese expert said in the Mainland Affairs Council’s (MAC) latest monthly report.
Beijing is strengthening the striking power of its nuclear triad in the form of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) air force, navy and rocket force, Tung Hui-ming (董慧明), an associate professor of Chinese military studies at National Defense University, wrote in the report.
The PLA had 500 operationally available nuclear weapons as of May last year and is working to double that amount, he said.
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The DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, which can be launched from silos, road vehicles and railcars, is a flexible and dependable system that forms the backbone of the PLA’s deterrence capabilities, Tung said.
The design of the Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine showed Chinese scientists have made strides in reducing the noise and increasing the payload of submarines, enhancing the credibility of China’s sea-based deterrence, he said.
China is also developing the DF-51 intercontinental ballistic missile, Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and Xian H-20 bombers, advanced weapons systems capable of serving as nuclear strike platforms, Tung said.
These systems represented significant breakthroughs in the effective range, stealth and penetration capabilities of Chinese weapons, as well as Beijing’s resolve to obtain more powerful nuclear arms, Tung said.
The US believes these efforts are enabling China to obtain more nuclear capabilities than the minimum quantity necessary to achieve deterrence, which would increase uncertainty in the regional balance of power, Tung said.
The increase in the PLA’s nuclear deterrence capabilities has substantially affected the global strategic equilibrium, spurring the US and its allies to take countermeasures, he said.
The US most likely would hasten nuclear arms modernization to strengthen its strategic deterrence while other regional powers make changes to their strategic posture to strengthen defensive alliances, he said.
The international community faces the challenge of striking a balance between achieving security and maintaining regional stability, he said.
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