Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is unlikely to attempt an invasion of Taiwan during US president-elect Donald Trump’s time in office, Taiwanese and foreign academics said on Friday.
Trump is set to begin his second term early next year.
Xi’s ambition to establish China as a “true world power” has intensified over the years, but he would not initiate an invasion of Taiwan “in the near future,” as his top priority is to maintain the regime and his power, not unification, Tokyo Woman’s Christian University distinguished visiting professor and contemporary Chinese politics expert Akio Takahara said.
Photo: Reuters
Takahara made the comment at a symposium in Taipei by National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations to discuss the potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House on Indo-Pacific countries, including Taiwan.
He highlighted Xi’s shift from telling former US president Barack Obama that the Pacific Ocean is big enough for the US and China, to telling US President Joe Biden last year that the world can accommodate the two countries.
Viewing the Pacific Ocean from China’s perspective, Xi sees unifying Taiwan as essential, not only as a “very nationalistic target,” but also as a way to break through the first island chain and secure an advantage in the strategic competition with the US, Takahara said.
“When Xi Jinping finds that it is better to attack Taiwan to maintain power, then I think he will attack — but that is not tomorrow, that is not next year, that is not 2027,” he said, adding that the Chinese president is likely to continue his current strategy of “winning without fighting,” which relies on economic and cultural infiltration in Taiwan.
If Trump does not change the US-Taiwan policy “in a big way,” then Xi would most likely refrain from using military force against Taiwan during his second term, Takahara said.
“Attacking Taiwan is too risky,” as such action would severely damage China’s economy and “certainly undermine the source of his [Xi’s] legitimacy to rule,” he said.
In the event of a “no-reason invasion” by China, the US is likely to intervene with support from Japan, provided its Taiwan policy remains unchanged, he added.
Echoing Takahara, Sam Houston State University Department of Political Science associate professor Dennis Weng (翁履中) said that under the Trump administration, there would be no war or military conflicts between Taiwan and China, as Trump strongly opposes military confrontation.
“He will utilize all kinds of bargaining or all kinds of negotiations” to prevent a Taiwan-China war from happening,” Weng said.
Although China is unlikely to initiate an invasion of Taiwan in the next four years, Beijing would utilize “some other tools in their toolbox,” such as cutting off trade deals with Taiwan and further isolating it by “taking away” its remaining diplomatic allies, he said.
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