China is likely to launch military drills in the coming days near Taiwan, using President William Lai’s (賴清德) upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled US transit as a pretext, regional security officials said.
Lai is to begin a visit to Taipei’s three diplomatic allies in the Pacific on Saturday, and sources told Reuters he was planning stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam in a sensitive trip shortly after the US presidential election.
Lai’s office has yet to confirm details of what are officially “stop-overs” in the US, but is expected to do so shortly before he departs, sources familiar with the trip said.
Photo: I-Hwa Cheng, AFP
Beijing could conduct military maneuvers during or shortly after Lai’s trip, which ends on Dec. 6, said four officials in the region briefed on the matter, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense did not respond to a request for comment, although the Chinese government has urged the US not to permit Lai to transit.
Lai’s transit stops are “essentially provocative acts that violate the one China principle,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Chen Binhua (陳斌華) said yesterday.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.
China has already staged two rounds of major exercises around Taiwan this year to pressure Taipei, one in May and one in October, dubbed “Joint Sword-2024A” and “B” respectively.
China could “repackage” ongoing regular military activities in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, moving them closer to Taiwan and rebranding them “Joint Sword-2024C,” a Taiwan security official said.
Beijing could expand the size of its regular “joint combat readiness patrol” that typically involves naval and air force drills near Taiwan during Lai’s visit and launch a “targeted” exercise toward the end of the trip, the source said.
Between 20 and 30 Chinese naval vessels are involved in the ongoing military maneuvers this week in the South China Sea, the source added.
Beijing wants to show the incoming administration of US president-elect Donald Trump that the first island chain is “China’s sphere of influence” and Lai’s trip could become a “pretext,” the official said, referring to an area that runs from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing seas that reach China’s coast.
“Beijing hopes to draw a red line and establish its power” during the US government transition to extend its sphere of influence, the official said, adding the military drills were meant for the US and its allies.
The drills would probably be more limited in scope than the two earlier rounds this year given unstable winter weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait, said a second source, a Taiwan-based regional security official.
China could use exercises in the coming weeks to test the bottom line of the Trump administration, said a third source, who was familiar with the security assessments.
Two of the sources said more favorable weather conditions might prompt an earlier or delayed display of force in the days around Lai’s trip.
Taiwan’s presidents typically take advantage of stopovers in the US going to and from far-flung allies to give speeches and meet with friendly politicians. Lai would be visiting the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, three of the 12 remaining countries that maintain official diplomatic ties with Taipei.
It would not be unprecedented for China to respond militarily to this trip. It did so in August last year when then-vice president Lai returned from the US, and in April last year upon then-president Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) return from California.
Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only that Taiwan’s people can decide their future.
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