Taiwan’s population could drop to fewer than 15 million by 2070, which would be more than 8 million fewer people than today, the National Development Council (NDC) estimated.
Every two years, the council releases estimates on the country’s projected population and birthrate for the following 50 years, comparing fertility scenarios based on the latest household registration data.
According to its latest report released in August, under the medium-term assumption that each woman has only one child in her lifetime, Taiwan’s total population would drop from 23.4 million this year to 14.97 million in 2070, a decrease of 8.44 million.
Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times
The working-age population would decrease by 9.2 million people and would account for an estimated 46.6 percent of the population, the report said.
The population of children under 14 would decrease by 1.71 million, the working-age population — or those aged 15 to 64 — would decrease by 9.2 million, while the number of people aged 65 or older would increase by 2.48 million, it said.
About one-quarter of the countries and regions worldwide have or are about to enter negative population growth, including Japan, South Korea, China and Thailand, the NDC said.
Taiwan would become a “super-aged society” next year, meaning that more than 20 percent of its population would be 65 or older, it said, adding that 40 countries and regions around the world are already super-aged societies, including Japan, Germany and France.
Taiwan’s dependency ratio — the number of children and elderly people who are care-dependent, compared with the number of non-dependent adults — would reach 100 percent by 2059, if current demographic trends continue, it said.
The dependency ratio today is 44.7 percent.
Based on current estimates, Taiwan’s dependency ratio would be 100 percent in 2059 and 114.6 percent in 2070, when every group of 100 working-age people would need to care for 100 elderly people, or 14 children, it said.
Hsieh Chia-yi (謝佳宜) director of the NDC’s department of human resources development, said that the council is implementing measures to respond to the declining and aging population.
The NDC would deliberate on amendments to expand subsidies for in vitro fertilization, increase childcare leave for working mothers and introduce more smart technology into healthcare systems to meet increasing medical-care needs.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Labor said it has taken measures to ease a domestic labor shortage, encouraging the private sector to hire women, middle-aged and elderly people, migrant workers and international graduates.
To boost the labor participation rate among women, the ministry said that last year it implemented a program to promote re-employment of women, with the goal of adding 140,000 to the workforce within three years.
Under the program, employers can apply for a monthly “flextime bonus” of NT$3,000 (US$92.52) for up to 12 months from the program, if they approve flexible work hours for a previously displaced female worker who was recruited via a public employment service institution and hired by the employer for at least one month.
The ministry said it also promotes delayed retirement and continued employment of middle-aged and elderly workers, in accordance with the Middle-aged and Elderly Employment Promotion Act (中高齡者及高齡者就業促進法).
The goal is to increase the middle-aged and elderly workforce by 300,000 people within three years.
As of September, the scheme had assisted 105,561 middle-aged and elderly workers to secure employment, it said.
The ministry said it also has launched the Long-term Retention of Migrant Workers Program, under which, migrant workers who have worked in Taiwan for at least six years, or international students who have obtained an associate degree or above in Taiwan, could stay in Taiwan for a mid-level skilled job, if they have qualified expertise and earn a decent salary.
The ministry permits international graduates to work at mid-level skilled jobs in the hotel industry, while other jobs such as hospital aides, warehouse personnel, truck drivers, driver assistants, bus drivers and bus security guards to be opened soon, with regulatory amendments to be proposed by the end of the year.
Considering Taiwan’s shrinking workforce and top-class education resources invested in international students, the ministry said it is also planning to set up a work permit mechanism for graduated international students to broaden international talent retention.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs said that it hopes to alleviate labor shortage by introducing artificial intelligence (AI) applications to industries.
The Industrial Development Administration in August launched a program in collaboration with Microsoft and Amazon.com to train AI talent for industries.
The classes’ focus on innovation and the application of generative AI in manufacturing, with key industries in central and southern Taiwan, including chemical engineering, textile, machine tools, bicycles and steel, being explored, it said.
While the program is projected to train AI talent for about 300 companies, more AI classes for industry players have begun to accelerate the application of AI in industries, it added.
The ministry in August published a preview of amendments to the Act for Industrial Innovation to apply to AI, with the deductible expenditure increased from NT$1 billion to NT$1.8 billion to facilitate AI applications in industries.
‘DENIAL DEFENSE’: The US would increase its military presence with uncrewed ships, and submarines, while boosting defense in the Indo-Pacific, a Pete Hegseth memo said The US is reorienting its military strategy to focus primarily on deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a memo signed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth showed. The memo also called on Taiwan to increase its defense spending. The document, known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” was distributed this month and detailed the national defense plans of US President Donald Trump’s administration, an article in the Washington Post said on Saturday. It outlines how the US can prepare for a potential war with China and defend itself from threats in the “near abroad,” including Greenland and the Panama
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is maintaining close ties with Beijing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said yesterday, hours after a new round of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait began. Political parties in a democracy have a responsibility to be loyal to the nation and defend its sovereignty, DPP spokesman Justin Wu (吳崢) told a news conference in Taipei. His comments came hours after Beijing announced via Chinese state media that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command was holding large-scale drills simulating a multi-pronged attack on Taiwan. Contrary to the KMT’s claims that it is staunchly anti-communist, KMT Deputy
RESPONSE: The government would investigate incidents of Taiwanese entertainers in China promoting CCP propaganda online in contravention of the law, the source said Taiwanese entertainers living in China who are found to have contravened cross-strait regulations or collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could be subject to fines, a source said on Sunday. Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media. In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said. To curb repeated
Myanmar has turned down an offer of assistance from Taiwanese search-and-rescue teams after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the nation on Friday last week, saying other international aid is sufficient, the National Fire Agency said yesterday. More than 1,700 have been killed and 3,400 injured in the quake that struck near the central Myanmar city of Mandalay early on Friday afternoon, followed minutes later by a magnitude 6.7 aftershock. Worldwide, 13 international search-and-rescue teams have been deployed, with another 13 teams mobilizing, the agency said. Taiwan’s search-and-rescue teams were on standby, but have since been told to stand down, as