China would become a crucial “reverse factor” to global stability after the US presidential election, posing political and economic challenges around the world, a National Security Bureau official said yesterday.
Amid major elections in many democracies this year — including in France, Italy and the UK, as well as today’s US presidential election and Japan’s extraordinary session of the National Diet to choose a prime minister on Monday next week — China has attempted to leverage the geopolitical and global economic situation to make a strategic breakthrough, said the official, who wished to remain anonymous.
Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are not only expected to aggravate global inflation and supply chain insecurity, but could influence voters, potentially opening up opportunities for China, which with its economic influence could become a crucial “reverse factor” to global stability in the coming year, they said.
Photo: Tingshu Wang, Reuters
China’s authoritarian coalition with Russia, Iran and North Korea is growing and threatening the Indo-Pacific region, while prolonging or exacerbating conflicts that could trap Western democracies in wars in continental Europe and the Middle East, and enable Russia to continue its aggressive expansion, they said.
China’s continued military coercion in the Indo-Pacific region has virtually opened another battlefield, with the aim of diverting the attention of the US and other democracies to reduce international pressure on Russia, they said.
Economically, China’s domestic demand has remained sluggish after the COVID-19 pandemic, but Beijing’s nonmarket economy approach is functioning as a placebo that exacerbates the problem, the official said.
Combined with a manufacturing surplus, the country’s stagnant domestic economy has caused a glut of Chinese goods, they said.
If China seeks to resolve its production surplus by flooding international markets with steel, electric vehicles and petrochemicals, domestic demand in many countries would be severely affected, they said.
For example, exports of China-made products could rise considerably through e-commerce sites during its Double 11 shopping event on Monday next week, aided by reduced or waived shipping fees that would result in unfair market competition, the official said.
China could dominate global markets with “overproduction,” as that has become an alternative weapon for Beijing to threaten global economic stability, they said.
Many countries have imposed higher tariffs against Chinese products to protect domestic industries, they said.
Additional reporting by CNA
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