Most Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to invade in the coming five years, but do see Beijing as a serious threat, a poll by Taiwan's top military think tank showed today.
Over the past five years or so, China's military has significantly ramped up its activities around Taiwan.
Photo: Reuters
The survey of about 1,200 people conducted last month by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) showed 61 percent of respondents thought it was "unlikely or very unlikely" that China would attack Taiwan in the coming five years.
"Most people do not think China's territorial ambitions will manifest themselves in the form of attacking Taiwan," INDSR researcher Christina Chen said.
Taiwanese are also concerned about other Chinese threats, including military drills and propaganda campaigns, she said.
"Most people see China's territorial ambitions as a serious threat," Chen said.
The poll presents a contrast to a warning by the head of the US’ CIA, who said last year that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
"That means Taiwanese are aware of the threat, but remain calm and rational with the expectations of an imminent war," the INDSR said.
More than 67 percent of respondents to the poll said they would fight back if China attacked, but were split almost evenly on whether Taiwan's armed forces were capable of defending Taiwan, with half expressing confidence and half no confidence.
Lee Kuan-chen (李冠成), another INDSR researcher, said Taiwan's military should continue to boost its defense capabilities to build public trust.
The poll also showed a split in opinion on whether the US would help defend Taiwan.
While about 74 percent believed the US government was likely to "indirectly" help Taiwan by providing food, medical supplies and weapons, only 52 percent thought the US would dispatch its armed forces to intervene, the poll showed.
Lee said Taiwan's government should be more transparent about Taiwan-US security cooperation.
"That way, people will not have expectations that are too high or too low on US assistance," Lee said.
US President Joe Biden has made comments that appear to suggest the US would defend Taiwan if it were attacked, a deviation from a long-held US position of "strategic ambiguity."
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