Germany should abandon strategic ambiguity and take a clear stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty in the face of China’s threats, Berlin-based think tank the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) said in a report.
DGAP released the report following the transit of the German frigate Baden-Wurttemberg and supply ship Frankfurt am Main through the Taiwan Strait on Sept. 13, which drew criticism from Beijing.
The report said the passage by the German vessels demonstrated that “Germany is not threatened by China,” and recommended Germany abandon its relatively vague position on issues related to Taiwan.
Photo: AFP
Citing an example, DGAP said the German Federal Foreign Office only briefly mentioned Taiwan in its 72-page Indo-Pacific policy report issued in 2020, in which it only described academic exchanges with Taiwan.
However, such a vague stance would be insufficient to deal with the escalating geopolitical risks emerging in the Indo-Pacific region, it said.
While the world is paying close attention to Ukraine, it cannot ignore the rising tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait due to an increasingly aggressive Chinese People’s Liberation Army, it said.
The report said that 10 per cent of global economic output, or more than US$10 trillion, would be lost annually in the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The impact of a cross-strait conflict on Germany’s global trade, of which 20 percent is with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, would be more significant than the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War had on Germany’s economy, it said.
The report suggested that China would be unlikely to attempt an invasion of Taiwan in the coming few years, but that could change if Taiwan officially declared independence.
Germany must also consider the possibility of the US returning to isolationism, requiring Europe to bear more of its defense costs, particularly if former US president Donald Trump is re-elected, it said.
The report said that Germany must take more positive actions and a clearer stance to ensure stability in the Taiwan Strait and safeguard its national interests.
By joining other European countries in addressing and condemning China’s military actions, Germany would have the opportunity to change Beijing’s calculations, it said.
In addition to transiting the Taiwan Strait, Germany could improve military cooperation with allies in the Indo-Pacific region such as New Zealand, Australia, Japan and South Korea, it said.
For example, it could hold joint military exercises with regional partners, support provisioning drone technology to the Philippines and help allies strengthen their maritime defenses, it said.
Researchers Aylin Matle and Hanna Gers, who authored the report, said Berlin should clearly convey to Beijing that if it attempts to invade Taiwan, it would face serious economic and diplomatic consequences.
The report said the German government should clearly and transparently explain to the German public how security issues in the Indo-Pacific region affect Germany’s national interests, and explain the importance of defense investments in this context.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, China imposed significant tariffs on Australian imports as retaliation for its calls for the international community to investigate the origins of the pandemic.
The Australian government conveyed to the Australian public the geopolitical threat posed by China and successfully gained public support for its policies and increased defense spending, an experience which Germany should learn from, the researchers said.
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