As Tropical Storm Bebinca barrels toward waters off northern Taiwan gathering strength into a possible typhoon, weather forecasters in Taipei are using a new and so far successful method to help track its path: artificial intelligence (AI).
AI-generated forecasts, some powered by software from tech giants including Nvidia, whose chips are made by Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor champion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, have so far outperformed traditional methods in predicting typhoon tracks.
In July, it was AI-based weather models, used for the first time, that helped Taiwan better predict the path and impact of Typhoon Gaemi, the strongest to strike the nation in eight years that brought record-breaking rainfall.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
The new technology impressed Taiwanese forecasters by predicting a direct hit as early as eight days before Gaemi made landfall, handily outperforming conventional methods, which remain the mainstay of prediction planning.
“People are starting to realize AI indeed delivered some stunning performances compared to conventional models,” Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention of Technology Engineering Consulting Co director Chia Hsin-sing (賈新興) said.
Bebinca is being tracked using the same AI tools by people including Lin Ping-yu (林秉煜), a forecaster at the Central Weather Administration (CWA), who said that AI has given the agency a higher degree of confidence there would not be a direct hit.
“This [AI] is a good thing for us. It is like having one more useful tool to use,” Lin said.
The AI weather programs on offer include Nvidia’s FourCastNet, Google’s GraphCast and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather, as well as a deep learning-based system by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
“It is a hotly watched competition. We will know soon who is winning,” Chia said.
Such AI models have also begun to be used to predict storms and hurricanes in other regions with good accuracy, forecasters and academics say.
The AI-based software is trained using historical weather data to learn the cause and effect relationships of meteorological systems and can predict hundreds of weather variables days in advance — a process that requires only a few minutes to complete.
For all the typhoons in the western Pacific this year until the middle of this month, AI’s accuracy in predicting storm tracks over a three-day window was nearly 20 percent higher than that of conventional models, data compiled by the CWA showed.
Ahead of Gaemi, AI helped the CWA foresee an unusual loop in its path that prolonged its impact on Taiwan and prompted it to swiftly issue a rare warning for rainfall of 1.8m, which was later proven accurate, CWA Deputy Administrator Lu Kuo-chen (呂國臣) said.
AI “boosted the confidence for forecasters to make that prediction,” Lu said, adding that the early warning gave extra time for authorities to carry out preparations.
Lu is also pinning hopes on a partnership with Nvidia, which this year announced a generative AI tool called CorrDiff that aims to forecast more precise locations of typhoon landfall and provide higher resolution images inside a storm.
“We are seeing the potential,” Lu said.
However, for now experts say the AI tools were not able to deliver quality forecasts for more detailed impact of a typhoon, such as its strength and winds, and more time is needed for the new technology to solidify its lead over more traditional ways.
“Was it just good luck?” Chia asked, pointing to AI’s stellar performance on Gaemi. “We need to give AI a bit more time. It is something to look forward to.”
AI is also being used to forecast wave patterns, with the system expected to be fully operational by 2026 in 16 of the 22 administrative regions in Taiwan, the CWA said.
Twelve monitoring stations and several forecasting systems have been established nationwide to improve safety for recreational water activities, the agency said.
Pilot programs are under way along the north coast and at the Northeast and Yilan Coast National Scenic Area, it said.
The CWA said it has partnered with local research institutions to develop rip current monitoring and forecasting tools.
Using AI, they are producing detailed wave forecasts to enhance the safety of coastal recreation and other operations, it added.
Additional reporting by CNA
WANG RELEASED: A police investigation showed that an organized crime group allegedly taught their clients how to pretend to be sick during medical exams Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) and 11 others were released on bail yesterday, after being questioned for allegedly dodging compulsory military service or forging documents to help others avoid serving. Wang, 33, was catapulted into stardom for his role in the coming-of-age film Our Times (我的少女時代). Lately, he has been focusing on developing his entertainment career in China. The New Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office last month began investigating an organized crime group that is allegedly helping men dodge compulsory military service using falsified documents. Police in New Taipei City Yonghe Precinct at the end of last month arrested the main suspect,
A cat named Mikan (蜜柑) has brought in revenue of more than NT$10 million (US$305,390) for the Kaohsiung MRT last year. Mikan, born on April 4, 2020, was a stray cat before being adopted by personnel of Kaohsiung MRT’s Ciaotou Sugar Refinery Station. Mikan was named after a Japanese term for mandarin orange due to his color and because he looks like an orange when curled up. He was named “station master” of Ciaotou Sugar Refinery Station in September 2020, and has since become famous. With Kaohsiung MRT’s branding, along with the release of a set of cultural and creative products, station master Mikan
LITTORAL REGIMENTS: The US Marine Corps is transitioning to an ‘island hopping’ strategy to counterattack Beijing’s area denial strategy The US Marine Corps (USMC) has introduced new anti-drone systems to bolster air defense in the Pacific island chain amid growing Chinese military influence in the region, The Telegraph reported on Sunday. The new Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS) Mk 1 is being developed to counter “the growing menace of unmanned aerial systems,” it cited the Marine Corps as saying. China has constructed a powerful defense mechanism in the Pacific Ocean west of the first island chain by deploying weapons such as rockets, submarines and anti-ship missiles — which is part of its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy against adversaries — the
RISING TOURISM: A survey showed that tourist visits increased by 35 percent last year, while newly created attractions contributed almost half of the growth Changhua County’s Lukang Old Street (鹿港老街) and its surrounding historical area clinched first place among Taiwan’s most successful tourist attractions last year, while no location in eastern Taiwan achieved a spot in the top 20 list, the Tourism Administration said. The listing was created by the Tourism Administration’s Forward-looking Tourism Policy Research office. Last year, the Lukang Old Street and its surrounding area had 17.3 million visitors, more than the 16 million visitors for the Wenhua Road Night Market (文化路夜市) in Chiayi City and 14.5 million visitors at Tainan’s Anping (安平) historical area, it said. The Taipei 101 skyscraper and its environs —
RSS