The US would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan, retired Japanese lieutenant general Hirotaka Yamashita said.
Yamashita made the remarks in an interview with the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) on Friday.
He is in Taiwan to promote his book on Taiwan Strait security.
Photo: Tien Yu-hua, Taipei Times
Yamashita said he wrote Total Simulation of a Taiwan Invasion to warn and inform the Japanese public on the impact a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have on Japan.
Most Japanese have heard the phrase “A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency,” without understanding what that means for their nation, he said.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine under the pretext of demilitarization and fighting “Nazis” showed, Beijing would have no shortage of excuses if it wished to start a war against Taiwan, Yamashita said.
However, a US intervention is highly likely, as US President Joe Biden has stated multiple times that he would send troops to defend Taiwan, Yamashita said.
The loss of Taiwanese and US lives in a Chinese attack would force Washington’s hand, Yamashita added.
The US could defend Taiwan by deploying sea, air, electronic and cyberspace warfare capabilities, he said.
To invade Taiwan, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) must deploy a massive number of troops across the Taiwan Strait, exposing vulnerable troop transport ships to smaller asymmetric weapons systems, he said.
The loss of one large transport ship could result in more than 1,000 casualties, losses Beijing increasingly could not afford amid its low birthrate and aging population, Yamashita said.
The PLA can no longer count on “out-bleeding” its opponents, and high casualties from an attempt to take over Taiwan could become politically unaffordable to China’s leadership, he said.
Taiwan’s decision to reinstate one year of military conscription is well-advised, as asymmetric warfare offers the nation its best chance at victory, he said.
Increasing the number of ground troops works well with the US’ strategy of holding the line with uncrewed aerial vehicles and robot ships to buy time to mount a response, Yamashita said.
Taiwan is a valued friend to Japan and many politicians in Tokyo share former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s concern for the security of Taiwan, he said.
The visit to Taipei by a multi-party delegation of Japanese lawmakers to attend President William Lai’s (賴清德) inauguration last month demonstrated the breadth of support Taiwan enjoys among Japanese, he said.
Despite the constraints of Japan’s pacifist constitution, Taipei and Tokyo can collaborate on many security matters, such as making better arrangements for the safety of Japanese citizens in Taiwan during a military conflict, he said.
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