Beijing’s latest wave of economic pressure on Taiwan, following its military exercises around the nation shortly after President William Lai (賴清德) took office, would likely continue until the middle of this month to balance its stance on Taiwan, academics said.
China on Friday announced a plan to suspend preferential tariff rates for on 134 Taiwanese imports that had been part of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), effective from Saturday next week.
The move was prompted by Taipei’s refusal to acknowledge the so-called “1992 consensus” and perceived efforts to promote Taiwanese independence, which had “severely undermined the foundation for cross-strait negotiations and the ECFA’s implementation,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said.
Photo: Dado Ruvic, Reuters
Beijing’s latest economic measures, along with the military exercises around Taiwan on May 23 and 24 were a part of a series of “expected” actions in response to Lai’s inaugural speech on May 20, Taiwanese academics specializing in cross-strait relations said.
These measures “are completely within the expectations” of analysts and Taiwan’s high-level government officials, said Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), an associate professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of China Studies.
Chang said it was “inevitable” for Beijing to escalate pressure on Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration to express dissatisfaction with what it deemed a “provocative” act by Taipei’s new leader.
While Beijing had no expectations for Lai’s inaugural speech, it would not have anticipated him making such a clear distinction between the two sides on his first day in office, Institute for National Policy Research deputy head Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) said, referring to Lai’s speech where he said “the Republic of China (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are not subordinate to each other.”
Kuo said that while former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) had made similar statements during her time in office, she did so mainly in National Day addresses.
The meaning of such a statement varies depending on the timing and occasion, Kuo said, adding that Beijing might have taken it in “the most offensive” light.
Lai also mentioned in his speech that “We have a nation insofar as we have sovereignty... Persons possessing the nationality of the Republic of China shall be citizens of the Republic of China.”
This statement might have been interpreted by Beijing as yet another “two-state theory,” reminiscent of one first proposed by former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in 1999 to characterize Taiwan and China as two different jurisdictions, Kuo said.
Nevertheless, both academics said that Beijing’s pressure would start to ease after the middle of the month, as China is to host this year’s Straits Forum in Xiamen and would balance its tough stance on Taiwan.
China would not suspend all tax concessions for Taiwanese goods under the ECFA or terminate the bilateral agreement entirely, as it is in Beijing’s interest to continue promoting economic integration with Taiwan, Kuo said.
In practice, Beijing would unveil new measures to enhance people-to-people exchanges, including implementing policies in favor of Taiwanese conducting business in China and easing restrictions for Chinese students and tourists to study in or visit Taiwan, he said.
Cross-strait relations are not Lai’s main focus, Kuo said, adding that the new president did not seem eager to make a breakthrough, as long as the “status quo” could be maintained.
On the other hand, Chang said that Taipei had not made any policy adjustments to its ban on Chinese imports, and would likely continue this stance to avoid appearing as if it was “giving in” to Beijing’s pressure, Chang said.
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