The nation is poised to usher in a new president, William Lai (賴清德), today, and his initial moments in the role could set the tone for the next four years of US-China relations.
Lai’s first speech as president would be scrutinized by US policymakers seeking signals on the incoming administration’s strategy for relations with China, and Beijing’s reaction.
Throughout his campaign, Lai, a 64-year-old physician-turned-politician, did not stray far from outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on policy related to ties with the Chinese Communist Party.
Photo: Screen grab from the Presidential Office’s Flickr page
He said that Taiwan is already a sovereign state and vowed to boost military capabilities to maintain the “status quo” in the Strait.
That might change depending on how Beijing, which views Taiwan as its territory, reacts.
“Lai will try to strike a balance as Tsai did, but will adapt as his term unfolds,” said Steve Tsang (曾銳生), director of the China Institute at the University of London’s School of Oriental and Asian Studies. “Much will depend on how he reacts to Beijing’s unhelpful approach to him. If Beijing turns much more hostile and aggressive, Lai may well react accordingly.”
The first day of the presidency can define the relationship with China, as past experience has shown.
In her first inauguration speech in 2016, Tsai offered the possibility of continuing direct talks with Beijing, without explicitly saying that Taiwan is a part of China. Beijing was quick to deem her offer insufficient, calling her remarks an “an incomplete test paper.”
That stance was in stark contrast with how China handled the relationship with Tsai’s predecessor, former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), who Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) met for unprecedented talks in 2015 just before Ma left office.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai has echoed Tsai’s “peace, parity, democracy and dialogue” mantra as a basis for talks with China.
He has also said he aims to ensure a “stable and principled” cross-strait relationship.
“We will work to safeguard the ‘status quo’ on both sides,” Lai said in a speech to the Copenhagen Democracy Summit earlier last week. “I will not rule out dialogue with China on the principles of mutual respect, mutual benefits and dignity with no preconditions.”
There is a risk that door has already closed. China’s leaders have balked at any notion that Taiwan is independent, with Xi instead making overtures for what he calls the “reunification” with China. Beijing’s military also makes regular appearances near Taiwan.
China last week signaled it plans to apply the same pressure on Lai that it has over Tsai’s eight years. It has sent large sorties of warplanes into sensitive areas around the nation, and hit five political commentators with largely symbolic sanctions.
A senior US administration official who briefed reporters last week said that Beijing would likely be seen as the provocateur if it chose to respond in a coercive way to the attendance of a US delegation at Lai’s inauguration.
The US is not predicting such a reaction, the official added, and it is typical for the Chinese authorities to state their disapproval.
The ceremony marks the third election in a row that voters have chosen a candidate who sees Taiwan’s long-term future as separate from China.
Still, Lai is entering office with a weaker mandate than Tsai after getting just 40 percent of the vote, and his DPP lost its majority in the legislature.
A major conflict in the Taiwan Strait could prove disastrous for global growth and supply chains — not to mention the human toll.
Bloomberg Economics has estimated the price tag of any outright hostilities at about US$10 trillion, equal to about 10 percent of global GDP.
That dwarfs the blow from the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic and global financial crisis.
Conflict is something Beijing and Washington want to avoid. Taiwan and the US reached an arrangement on trade last year, and US President Joe Biden has repeatedly pledged to defend the nation if China attacks, underscoring the importance of Taipei to the US.
Lai seems keenly aware of the risks, and has tried to portray himself as a steady hand in a difficult situation. He has also indicated he would stand firm in the face of pressure from Beijing.
“China’s coercion has only strengthened our resolve to remain democratic and free,” Lai said last week. “We refuse to submit to fear. We choose optimism and hope.”
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