China seems to be toning down its military pressure on Taiwan, but is still likely to continue its diplomatic isolation campaign, Taiwanese security officials said.
The People’s Liberation Army continues to conduct exercises and patrols around Taiwan, but they have not increased in intensity since the presidential and legislative elections in January, said two security officials, who spoke to Bloomberg News on Friday on condition they not be identified as they were discussing a private matter.
China’s apparent restraint since the elections contrasts with previous occasions when Beijing increased naval and air force activity near Taiwan in response to incidents such as visits to Taiwan by foreign officials.
Photo: Johnson Lai, AP
Beijing is likely waiting to see how president-elect William Lai’s (賴清德) government operates once it takes office on May 20, the officials said.
China’s recent economic weakness is another reason for it to refrain from exacerbating tensions, they added.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai has in the past described himself as a “pragmatic worker for independence,” comments that led Beijing to brand him a “troublemaker” and a “separatist” before the election.
Lai walked back on those claims during his campaign and presented himself as a steady hand who could be trusted to make the right decisions in one of the world’s biggest geopolitical flashpoints.
US President Joe Biden has said that the US would defend Taiwan if it were attacked.
Bloomberg Economics has estimated the price tag of a war at about US$10 trillion, equal to about 10 percent of global GDP.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense did not respond to a request for comment on Monday.
However, the officials said that China would continue long-term military preparations for an invasion of Taiwan.
They pointed to Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) saying during a meeting at the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National People’s Congress in Beijing earlier this month that the military should dovetail its maritime strategy with economic development.
Xi also said that the armed forces “should coordinate the preparation for maritime military conflicts, the protection of maritime rights and interests, and the development of the maritime economy.”
Beijing would forge ahead with efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, especially to diminish any possible role at the UN, the security officials said.
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