Mon, Mar 18, 2024 page2

• Energy, banking at risk in conflict: researchers

  ‘EXTREMELY VULNERABLE’: The incoming administration should consider bolstering communication networks and protecting the nation’s energy capabilities, researchers said

  • By Wu Che-yu and William Hetherington / Staff reporter, with staff writer and CNA
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  The nation’s energy and banking sectors should be bolstered to better withstand Chinese aggression, researchers said, citing the outcome of tabletop war games held last week.

  The annual tabletop exercise were held by the Asia-Pacific Policy Research Association, the Taiwan Center for Security Studies, National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations and other groups on Thursday and Friday.

  The exercises aim to identify Taiwan’s security shortcomings and find solutions, said retired navy admiral Chen Yeong-kang (陳永康), who planned the exercises.

  

  Chess pieces are arranged in front of China’s and Taiwan’s flags in an illustration photograph taken on Jan. 25, 2022.

  Photo: Reuters

  This year’s exercises centered on eight issues, including economic security — particularly in the event of a blockade — as well as protecting information security and networking communications links.

  The exercises simulated events that could occur in 2032 when Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) fourth term ends, and looked at how the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “gray zone” tactics might evolve.

  “It is not about who wins or loses in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. We want to identify problems that have not been thought of, and solve them at a cost that society as a whole can bear,” Chen said.

  “Telling people not to be afraid, or to ‘fight to the end’ is not rational. We need to plan solutions for issues that might emerge,” he said.

  Taiwan Center for Security Studies director Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國) said that the importance of the exercises was “not to deduce the outcome of a possible cross-strait war, but to seek strategies for hedging and managing risks.”

  During the exercises, in which 170 domestic and foreign researchers participated, Taiwan was found to be “extremely vulnerable” in several areas, Liu said, adding that he hoped the incoming administration could act on the researchers’ suggestions.

  The government should seek to protect nuclear power plants, bolster communication networks and consider issuing international war bonds, he said.

  Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research researcher Liang Chi-yuan (梁啟源) said that renewable energy solutions being implemented in Taiwan have indirect supply problems, while the nation’s natural gas efforts are “at least six years behind” where it needs to be to be viable.

  “If war breaks out, Taiwan’s ability to fight would be limited by a lack of energy reserves,” Liang said.

  “The government should enhance output from power plants, and consider existing nuclear plants as part of those efforts,” he said, adding that doing so could potentially give Taiwan sufficient energy for up to one-and-a-half years during a conflict.

  Another issue is that 93 percent of Taiwan’s foreign reserves are stored abroad, while information-exchange issues between large banks in Taiwan and abroad could emerge in the event of a conflict, Chung Hua University adjunct professor Tu Tzu-chen (杜紫宸) said.

  “There is no relevant discussion by the central bank on how to gain the trust of foreign banks and obtain authorization to use foreign exchange deposits to purchase strategic reserves,” Tu said.

  During a war, Taiwan could increase its monetary resources by issuing war and international bonds, and allowing foreign institutional investors to purchase bonds, he said.

  Taiwan’s Internet infrastructure could easily be paralyzed by the CCP, particularly as submarine cables had often been damaged, he said.

  In addition to relying on foreign-operated low Earth orbit satellites during wartime, the government could take stock of the nation’s countless underground cables buried by TV operators, which might be useful for communication between the government and emergency services if other networks are down, he said.
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