Achieving a consensus on how Taiwanese view the China threat and US security commitments to Taiwan would be challenging for president-elect William Lai (賴清德), a US academic said in an article published on Wednesday.
In an article in Foreign Policy, Timothy Rich, a professor of political science and director of the International Public Opinion Lab at Western Kentucky University, analyzed how Taiwanese public opinion would affect the incoming administration.
Seoul-based Macromill Embrain Co early last month conducted a survey commissioned by Rich, garnering valid responses from 1,213 Taiwanese voters.
Photo: Ng Han Guan, AP
More than 60 percent of respondents were “moderately,” “very” or “extremely” concerned about an invasion by China, Rich said, citing the survey.
The results were divided along party lines, with 46.85 percent of respondents who said they backed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) being “not at all” or “slightly” concerned, while 43.23 percent of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) supporters were “very” or “extremely” concerned, Rich said, adding that responses from Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) supporters “fell in between.”
The divergence in opinion indicates that “the Lai administration will struggle to build a consensus on the China threat,” he said.
More than 60 percent were “not at all” or “not very” confident that the US would defend Taiwan if China were to launch a war against the nation, he said.
The survey showed a partisan split — with 22.44 percent of DPP supporters “very” confident and 50.39 percent “fairly” confident that Washington would honor security commitments to Taiwan, he said.
Among KMT supporters, 77.6 percent were “not at all” or “not very” confident in US promises, while 69.43 percent of TPP supporters gave the same responses, he said.
The high confidence that the US would provide support among DPP supporters might be because they believe that the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) “has received additional private assurances from Washington,” Rich said.
Surveys in the past two years showed similar trends, he added.
Taiwanese across the political spectrum want peace and hope that the “status quo” is maintained, while a growing proportion identify themselves as Taiwanese, annual polls conducted by National Chengchi University showed.
Rich said the Macromill Embrain survey showed that 78.13 percent of KMT supporters believed cross-strait relations over the past year had worsened — with the party blaming Tsai’s administration — while 46.06 percent of DPP supporters agreed.
“Critically for future relations with China and the world, the Lai administration must adopt a posture of strength while not inviting conflict,” Rich said. “This may be a difficult task given the changing composition and views of Taiwanese citizens.”
With no party winning a legislative majority, cross-strait policies might remain moderate even if Lai takes a tough stance against China, he said.
Lai’s government “may not only struggle to pass military spending and reform bills, but also risk mixed messaging — a situation China will be keen to exploit,” he said.
Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) was questioned by prosecutors for allegedly orchestrating an attack on a taxi driver after he was allegedly driven on a longer than necessary route in a car he disliked. The questioning at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office was ongoing as of press time last night. Police have recommended charges of attempted murder. The legally embattled actor — known for his role in the coming-of-age film Our Times (我的少女時代) — is under a separate investigation for allegedly using fake medical documents to evade mandatory military service. According to local media reports, police said Wang earlier last year ordered a
CAUTION: Based on intelligence from the nation’s security agencies, MOFA has cautioned Taiwanese travelers about heightened safety risks in China-friendly countries The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) yesterday urged Taiwanese to be aware of their safety when traveling abroad, especially in countries that are friendly to China. China in June last year issued 22 guidelines that allow its courts to try in absentia and sentence to death so-called “diehard” Taiwanese independence activists, even though Chinese courts have no jurisdiction in Taiwan. Late last month, a senior Chinese official gave closed-door instructions to state security units to implement the guidelines in countries friendly to China, a government memo and a senior Taiwan security official said, based on information gathered by Taiwan’s intelligence agency. The
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, said yesterday that it is looking to hire 8,000 people this year, at a time when the tech giant is expanding production capacity to maintain its lead over competitors. To attract talent, TSMC would launch a large-scale recruitment campaign on campuses across Taiwan, where a newly recruited engineer with a master’s degree could expect to receive an average salary of NT$2.2 million (US$60,912), which is much higher than the 2023 national average of NT$709,000 for those in the same category, according to government statistics. TSMC, which accounted for more than 60 percent
President William Lai (賴清德) should protect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), and stop supporting domestic strife and discord, former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrote on Facebook yesterday. US President Donald Trump and TSMC on Monday jointly announced that the company would invest an additional US$100 billion over the next few years to expand its semiconductor manufacturing operations in the US. The TSMC plans have promoted concern in Taiwan that it would effectively lead to the chipmaking giant becoming Americanized. The Lai administration lacks tangible policies to address concerns that Taiwan might follow in Ukraine’s footsteps, Ma wrote. Instead, it seems to think it could
RSS