China is unlikely to attempt a military invasion of Taiwan in the short term, but would continue pursuing a “salami slicing” strategy with the aim of forcing Taiwan to talk, a research report says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “has a clear intention to unify Taiwan, but the means he would employ to attempt this are vague, and both peaceful unification and the use of military force would remain as possible options,” the report by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research says.
Xi sees China’s unification with Taiwan as being closely linked to his plans for the so-called “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” the report says.
Photo: Reuters
“Xi still sees peaceful unification as the best option to achieve that end, but is also preparing for the worst-case scenario,” it says. “At this stage, the probability of China launching a military attack on Taiwan is low, but if the issue is left to Xi alone to decide, the risk of trouble in the Taiwan Strait goes up.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strategy for pursuing peaceful unification would involve retaining the option of using force, and using threats and coercion to sow a rift in Taiwanese society, forcing Taiwan to the negotiating table, the report says, adding that China would continue attempts to infiltrate Taiwanese society through the guise of various types of exchanges.
Citing examples, the report says China’s large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait held on Sept. 11 last year demonstrated an attempt at intimidation of Taiwanese, while its “cross-strait development plan” promising benefits for Taiwanese who relocate to Fujian Province is an attempt at infiltration and division of Taiwanese society.
At the same time, China’s military drills were intended as a show of force to the US, which it hopes to deter from military involvement in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the report says.
“Rather than outright launching a war, the CCP is seeking to pressure Taiwan politically, militarily, economically, psychologically and socially,” it says.
However, if decisionmaking power in the CCP is completely concentrated in Xi alone, and CCP bureaucrats lose their advisory functions, the risk of Xi acting rashly in the Taiwan Strait would increase significantly, the report says.
Taiwan’s government and military would need to carefully plan for that contingency, and be prepared for the possibility of an armed conflict with China, it says.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) supports peaceful unification with China, and President William Lai (賴清德) is “a bit naive” for being a “practical worker for Taiwanese independence,” former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said in an interview published yesterday. Asked about whether the KMT is on the same page as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on the issue of Taiwanese independence or unification with China, Ma told the Malaysian Chinese-language newspaper Sin Chew Daily that they are not. While the KMT supports peaceful unification and is against unification by force, the DPP opposes unification as such and
The annual Taipei Summer Festival, which starts today, is to tone down its fireworks displays, the Taipei Department of Information and Tourism said on Monday. Fireworks displays are to be held at the riverside site in Datong District’s (大同) Dadaocheng (大稻埕) area on four days at this year’s festival, with the first today, and then on Wednesday next week, July 31 and Aug. 10, the department said. There were eight displays last year, with the reduction aimed at minimizing inconvenience to local residents, it said. The first three shows, which are all on Wednesdays, are to last for five minutes, while the final
EYE ON MAYORS: The DPP would file a complaint with the Control Yuan against Ko and Chiang over their handling of reports of abuse at a preschool in the city The Taipei City Government’s belated response under Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) and his predecessor, Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), to alleged child sex abuse at a kindergarten resulted in more children being victimized, two Taipei City Councilors said yesterday. A Taipei preschool teacher has been charged with sexually abusing six children from 2021 to last year at a school registered to his mother. Prosecutors are reportedly considering additional charges amid a wave of new accusations allegedly linking the suspect to 20 other abused children and the discovery at his residence of more than 600 sexually explicit videos featuring minors. The
FATAL ILLNESS: Untreated symptoms can rapidly worsen to complications such as high fever, seizures and loss of consciousness, and can be life-threatening, a doctor said Hospitals have been reporting dozens of people with heat-related illnesses every day over the past week, given continuous high daytime temperatures, so recognizing the early signs of heatstroke is crucial in preventing serious complications, a Taipei City Hospital emergency physician said. The Central Weather Administration yesterday issued a heat alert for 19 cities and counties across Taiwan, with temperatures in New Taipei City, Miaoli County and Pingtung County likely to exceed 38°C, and temperatures in 12 cities and counties likely to exceed 36°C for three days straight. More than a dozen people were taken to hospitals for heat-related illnesses every day from