The US and China must “act with prudence” to avoid escalating tensions and conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea after the presidential election on Saturday next week, a US academic said in an article published on Wednesday.
“Most urgently, every effort must be taken to avoid an escalation of tensions and outright conflict” in the region, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
All sides should be prudent once the results of the presidential election are announced, Kennedy said.
Photo: Lee Hui-chou, Taipei Times
He called for “extraordinary vigilance” leading up to the inauguration of the next president — Vice President William Lai (賴清德) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), or former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) of the Taiwan People’s Party — in May and his first few months in office.
A meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on the sidelines of an APEC summit in San Francisco in November last year created “guardrails” for the tense relations between Washington and Beijing, and a new normal of “competition without conflict,” he said.
To “keep ties from fraying” this year, the US should avoid regional conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region; engage in dialogue with China on trade, technology, artificial intelligence, climate and security issues; and coordinate with allies on China policy related to national security, economic security and climate change, he said.
He called on the Biden administration to identify ways to “strengthen and reform the rules-based international order” and how to maintain relations with China accordingly.
Some observers argue that if Lai is elected, it would prompt China to “react with dramatic moves,” which would in turn give Xi reasons to stop taking “conciliatory moves” trying to avoid outright conflicts with the US, Kennedy said.
However, there are other factors that are “sources of stability” for the US-China relationship, including the military deterrents that both sides maintain, extensive economic ties and people-to-people communication, he said.
In related news, online news firm Axios reported that the elections in Taiwan and the US would shape regional stability and China’s policies.
Beijing might view the election in Taiwan as a “litmus test for the likelihood of a non-violent unification process,” said Raymond Kuo, director of Rand Corp’s Taiwan Policy Initiative.
“A KMT win could reassure Beijing that peaceful unification is still an option,” Kuo told Axios.
However, public opinion in Taiwan would limit how far the KMT can shift cross-strait relations, he said.
If the DPP wins, Beijing might continue to harass Taiwan with “large-scale military exercises, airspace incursions, information operations and cyberintrusions” in a bid to influence policymaking in Taipei, he said.
As for the US presidential election, former US deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger told Axios that China would prefer “any candidate [who] shows weakness on NATO, on Ukraine and on Taiwan.”
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