Taiwan plays an important role in the US’ efforts to counter challenges posed by China, a US academic said, adding that the US presidential election next year might have a stronger impact on relations between the US, Taiwan and China than Taiwan’s elections next month.
“Taiwan figures ever more prominently in leading US strategic, economic and governance efforts to counter China’s ambitions,” Robert Sutter, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University who specializes in US-China relations, said in an article published in The Diplomat on Monday.
China’s rapid development of modern military power, state-backed intervention in markets and authoritarian practices that challenge global governance are putting the US on high alert, Sutter said.
Photo: Hector Retamal, AFP
In particular, Beijing’s pursuit of dominance over the US in Asia and the high-technology industries are considered “threats to fundamental US national security and well-being,” he said.
Defending against adverse Chinese practices has remained “at the top of US security, economic and governance priorities” in the past six years, gaining support from two different administrations and bipartisan majorities in the US Congress, as well as the public and media, Sutter said.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has been strengthening the US at home, and establishing stronger ties with allies and partners abroad to counter China’s threats, especially in technology, he said.
G7 nations and NATO, under Biden’s lead, are showing “unprecedented concern” over China, including its coercive behavior toward Taiwan, he added.
Taiwan plays a vital role in supporting the US’ efforts to counter China’s challenges, including its key location and its role in the Indo-Pacific region and technology industries, as well as democracy, a free-market economy and respect for international norms, Sutter said.
While Beijing is taking increasingly aggressive actions against Taipei, Washington has been providing “incremental, but substantial” support for Taiwan, he said.
As there is “strong momentum” behind the US’ efforts to counter Chinese challenges, and Taiwan’s elections next month are “unlikely to represent a turning point for US policy toward Taiwan and China,” he added.
In addition, Taiwan’s new president is unlikely to take strong and provocative actions against Beijing, which is disapproved by Taiwanese voters, and is likely to maintain cooperation with the US to strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence, Sutter said.
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the presidential candidate of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), which is known to engage more closely with Beijing than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, has “worked hard to reassure US officials and opinion leaders” that he would continue to cooperate with the US to deter China, he said.
After the US presidential election in November next year, if Biden is replaced by former US president Donald Trump or other candidates with strong “America First” leanings, US support for Taiwan “will face an inflection point,” Sutter said.
If Trump is elected and repeats his “disruptive behavior” toward US allies as he did during his previous term, US foreign policy would “likely work to the advantage of Beijing, and the loss of the United States and its allies and partners, especially Taiwan,” he said.
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