A former US defense official yesterday called on Taiwan, the US and their allies to be prepared for “a moment in the late 2020s” when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might launch military operations against Taiwan.
Speaking virtually at a security conference in Taipei, Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy under former US president Barack Obama, said that the Indo-Pacific region is facing the rise of a “more assertive China.”
It is “trying to change some of those rules of the international order and to assert its will, as its economic and military power grows,” Flournoy said.
Photo: CNA
Increasing tensions between the US and China in the past few years were not because of a change in Washington’s policy, but a leadership change in the Chinese Communist Party from former Chinese president Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) to Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in 2012, she said.
Under Hu and his predecessors, “China was very much internally focused on its own economic development, on bringing elements of its population out of poverty into the middle class, building its own economy,” she said.
However, with the arrival of Xi, China “dropped the mask or the veil” and “started to really flex its muscles economically, taking coercive measures against other countries militarily, building up its military,” she said.
Denial and deterrence are critical to preventing a potential US-China military conflict over Taiwan, she said.
Denial means convincing Xi that “he can’t be successful using military force to achieve his objectives,” while deterrence through cost and position means that “even if he could succeed, it would be at such great cost that it would be a Pyrrhic victory,” she said.
Xi is focused on economic and political coercion to shrink Taiwan’s international space and pressure it to change its posture, she said.
Xi has also instructed the PLA to continue its buildup to give him military options against Taiwan by 2027, she said.
“And so I believe we, the United States, our allies, Taiwan, the international community, we collectively need to be ready for a moment in the late [20]20s when deterrence may be tested,” Flournoy said. “And we need to be prepared for that and to be confident that President Xi, if he does test the waters of using force, that he will conclude that it’s too risky and too costly and he cannot succeed.”
Despite China’s military posture, Washington still needs to engage with Beijing due to shared interests and challenges and to reduce current level of tensions to stabilize the situation, she said.
Xi’s planned visit to the US for the APEC summit in San Francisco later this month to meet with US President Joe Biden could be a good start, she said.
“I don’t expect there to be any major policy changes on either side. I don’t expect more than somewhat symbolic deliverables, but I do think increasing dialogue, whether it’s restarting military-to-military dialogue or dialogue on arms control, on other issues, I think that’s very, very important,” she said.
Flournoy’s comments were made during a speech at this year’s Taipei Security Dialogue, organized by the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research think tank.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by