Experts on Monday offered mixed views on whether Taiwan could draw any lessons from an attack on Israel by Hamas, with some arguing that it should prompt more vigilance against attacks that cannot be detected in traditional ways or take place on a holiday.
Lai I-chung (賴怡忠), an adviser at the Taiwan Thinktank, told reporters that the failure of Israel’s intelligence services to detect an impending attack and the chaos that immediately followed it were a “major warning” to Taiwan.
It has been assumed that there would be clear signs of a military buildup ahead of a large-scale attack on Taiwan, Lai said.
Photo: Reuters
As this seems to no longer be the case, Taiwan needs to review and adjust its intelligence gathering and early-warning mechanisms, he said.
Others cautioned against drawing similarities between what happened in the Middle East and a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Chong Ja-ian (莊嘉穎), an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said that Hamas’ attack was a type of asymmetric warfare and not comparable to the threat Taiwan faces from China.
Chong said that broader lessons should be taken from the conflict, such as the importance of effective military mobilization capabilities and strong civil defense forces, which, despite appeals from some in Taiwan, have still not been entirely accepted by the public.
Retired air force lieutenant general Chang Yen-ting (張延廷) said that despite differences in the two situations, it would still be worthwhile for Taiwan to formulate how it would respond to a Hamas-style attack.
Hamas attempted a saturation attack by overwhelming Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system with rockets, then sending large numbers of fighters across the border to kill civilians and take hostages, Chang said.
The quick pace of the Hamas offensive, as well as its timing on a major Jewish holiday — Simchat Torah — could also be replicated by China, such as in an attack on Taiwan over the Lunar New Year, he said.
However, Taiwan has a weaker national defense position than Israel, in part because of its much more limited conscription model, he said.
While Israel has a significant advantage over Hamas in terms of troop numbers, Taiwan only has about 150,000 volunteer soldiers, compared with about 2 million in China, he said.
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