The US must not let Taiwan fall into the hands of China if it wants to deter Beijing, US political scientist John Mearsheimer said in an interview with the Australian on Friday.
Mearsheimer was asked whether the US would “lose interest” in Taiwan if it were to “reshore” the nation’s semiconductor production to the US.
“I don‘t think the chips matter very much at all,” he said. “What matters is that Taiwan is of enormous strategic importance to the US and to the Japanese.”
Photo: Fang Pin-chao, Taipei Times
“If you’re interested in deterring China, it’s imperative that the US not let Taiwan go under,” he said, adding that there are two specific reasons for that.
“First, if the US were to abandon Taiwan, it would send a terrible signal to its other allies in East Asia, and they would lose confidence in the US. It would be a hammer blow to the credibility of America‘s alliance structure,” he said.
“The second reason is: If you‘re interested in bottling up the Chinese navy and air force inside the first island chain, it’s essential to control Taiwan,” he added.
Asked how likely it is that China would ultimately invade Taiwan, Mearsheimer said it is “highly unlikely that they will try to do so.”
“First of all, the Chinese would have to launch an amphibious operation, which is among the most difficult military operations, and their military has not fought a war since 1979,” he said.
“Second, the Americans would definitely defend Taiwan: The United States would have plenty of warning and would make it an almost impossible task,” he said.
“But there‘s one major caveat: If the Taiwanese were to declare their independence, then the Chinese are likely to attack Taiwan,” he added.
Regarding the US view of Australia’s role in its containment strategy, Mearsheimer said that the US would be interested in putting together a coalition to deter China, as it would not want to have to act alone and would want as many allies as possible.
Regarding the AUKUS agreement with Australia and the UK, Mearsheimer said that the US is trying to create a close strategic relationship with Canberra that would leave “the Australians ... little choice but to be involved...”
Australia has a deep-seated interest in deterring Chinese dominance of Asia, he said.
“I don’t blame them one bit,” he said of China. “If I were running foreign policy in Beijing, I’d want to dominate Asia too.”
Almost all Australians missed the change from the time when ties with China were purely driven by economic matters, he said.
Times have changed, he said, adding that China poses a serious security threat that could undermine economic interactions, which is obviously not in Australia’s interest.
“The fact is that when prosperity and security clash, security invariably wins,” he said.
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