Taiwan is forecast to have the usual number of typhoons this year, but they are likely to be stronger due to the El Nino effect, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday.
Taiwan would see four to five typhoons this year, similar to the three to five it typically experiences from June to December, CWB Weather Forecast Center Director Lu Kuo-chen (呂國臣) told a news conference in Taipei.
Climatic patterns known as El Nino and El Nina also affect the outlook, Lu said.
Photo: Cheng Wei-chi, Taipei Times
Weather centers around the world are in agreement that there is likely to be an El Nino this year, meaning that ocean temperatures near the equator would be slightly warmer than average starting from the autumn, he said.
While it is more than 90 percent likely there would be an El Nino, its impacts would vary, he added.
For instance, although low pressure systems would be prevalent in the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea and the western Pacific until September, it would have little impact on temperatures or precipitation in Taiwan, Lu said.
Only three tropical storms have formed so far this year in the northwest Pacific, less than the average of 4.3, he said.
About 21 to 25 typhoons typically form in the second half of the year, and three to five affect Taiwan, he added.
El Nino usually does not affect the number of typhoons in Taiwan
The number of typhoons affecting Taiwan during an El Nino differs little from the normal trend, averaging 2.6 and 2.7 storms respectively, he said.
However, they tend to form farther to the east, meaning they travel over longer stretches of ocean and gain strength upon approach to arrive as moderate to intense events, Lu added.
Lu also announced that the bureau is launching three new warning and tracking systems this month.
The warning systems include township-level heat alerts and flash flood warnings for 19 river areas across the nation, he said.
More river locations were added following a successful trial last year of three areas in collaboration with the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, Lu said.
Daily weather forecasts for the river areas are now available in the “Life Weather” section of the CWB Web site, he said.
When there is a possibility of heavy rain upstream, the bureau would send a Public Warning System message to residents in the area by phone, he added.
The CWB is also adding asymmetric typhoon wind radius information to its typhoon updates, Lu added.
As typhoons approach Taiwan, wind forces change asymmetrically due to environmental influences, Lu said.
For instance, winds on the northern side of autumnal typhoons tend to be stronger, he said, adding that people can now check for changes in wind strength.
Additional reporting by CNA
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