The Chinese government is likely to continue exerting pressure on Taiwan regardless of which candidate wins the presidential election in January next year, US academic Andrew Nathan said in a speech in Taipei yesterday.
China would not soften its policy toward Taiwan even after there is a new president in Taipei, ending the eight-year administration of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said Nathan, who is a political science professor at Columbia University in New York.
Beijing does not approve of Vice President William Lai (賴清德), who is the DPP’s presidential candidate, because of his stance on independence, Nathan said.
Photo: CNA
Due to a lack of trust in Lai, Beijing is unlikely to do anything to “make Lai’s life easier,” even if he were to become president and promise not to pursue an independence agenda, Nathan said.
However, even if the election went to New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) candidate, or former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), the Taiwan People’s Party candidate, that would not necessarily lead to warmer cross-strait ties, Nathan said.
Beijing has limited understanding of Hou and Ko, so it is likely to apply sustained pressure on Taipei to “test” the reactions of whoever wins, he said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is not interested in engaging in dialogue with Taiwan’s next leader, even though the three leading candidates have expressed a willingness to do so, Nathan said.
Xi does not believe in maintaining the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait, Nathan said.
That is why Beijing frequently flies warplanes near Taiwan and is building up its military bases in the South China Sea, he said.
The US should exhibit prudence and end its “dangerous” anti-China stance if it wants to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, he said.
The Taiwan question is a “zero-sum game” for the US and China, he said.
Considering Taiwan’s strategic location in the first island chain, neither Washington nor Beijing can afford to see it controlled by or tilting too heavily toward the other side, he said.
He warned that there is “anti-China rhetoric” in the US Congress, adding that congresspeople often take a tough stance on China to bolster their own political interests.
The US government should “stick to its old policy,” he said, referring to Washington’s “one China” policy and “strategic ambiguity,” under which it does not take a public position on whether it would send troops to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The US should continue strengthening its partnership with Taiwan, but it should also refrain from making comments on the Taiwan issue that could be perceived by Beijing as acts of provocation, he added.
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