Taiwan is working with friendly nations on how to respond to a possible economic blockade by China, a scenario that appears more likely than a direct military attack, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Roy Chun Lee (李淳) said.
Chinese military exercises are increasingly aimed at “winning the war without an actual fight,” Lee said in an interview. “An economic blockade is, for sure, one of the possible options that China is seriously looking at.”
Lee’s remarks came after the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted three days of military drills around Taiwan following President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) meeting with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
Photo: Lo Pei-de, Taipei Times
Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) said the intensity of the latest exercises was on a par with Beijing’s reaction in August last year, when then-speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.
Beijing on Wednesday also announced a probe into Taiwan’s trade barriers on 2,455 Chinese products.
Most recently, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications said that China intends to enforce a 27-minute “no-fly zone” off northern Taiwan tomorrow morning — down from a three-day no-fly zone originally planned.
National security officials on Thursday said that China plans to launch a weather satellite.
Lee said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would have to take into account the costs any conflict would have on his nation’s economy.
“A blockade is one of the possible scenarios, but it is actually very costly and risky for any country, especially China, to implement,” Lee said. “Because economic blockades can easily escalate into military confrontation not only between Taiwan and China, but also between China and other trading partners that are doing a lot of commercial activities with Taiwan.”
Over the past two years, Taiwan has been accelerating its efforts to stockpile critical goods and minerals, and has introduced new legislation to bolster the nation’s resilience.
Being ready to respond to a blockade has become a top priority, although planning is currently at an “inception” stage, Lee added.
Lee acknowledged that the current tensions over Taiwan could have an economic cost, as companies reassess their investments in Taiwan — the world’s leading manufacturer of high-end semiconductors — or look to diversify operations out of the region.
“There are areas where we are seeing a concern, especially from the private sector and especially from the foreign investor communities,” he said.
Yet the data so far do not show any real impact, he added, and called for more balanced rhetoric about the likely risks.
Lee said that he did not expect the US-Taiwan relationship to change, regardless of who wins in the presidential election in January or the US election 10 months later.
Support for Taiwan is backed by Democrats and Republicans alike in Washington, with congressional action and visits to Taiwan picking up steadily.
The “US-Taiwan partnership is actually a long-term partnership — it’s not about which party is governing,” he said. “There’s also a strong consensus that maintaining a long-term, solid and united partnership with the United States is of critical importance for Taiwan.”
On the economic front, Washington and Taipei have been in talks on a trade framework that is not binding and does not include any discussion of market access.
However, momentum has grown in the US Congress and White House to turn the existing framework into a traditional free-trade agreement.
Lee said the US should consider such a shift as a “strategic move” rather than a purely economic one.
Whether or not that eventually happens, the two sides are on track to finalize some portions of the talks in the coming months and “by the end of this year, we’re going to see tangible results,” Lee said.
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