Residents of Taiwan’s outlying islands have lower infection-induced protection against COVID-19 than people on Taiwan proper, a National Taiwan University professor said yesterday, urging the government to carefully consider reopening the “small three links” between Kinmen County and China’s Fujian Province.
National Taiwan University College of Public Health professor Tony Chen (陳秀熙) said that the accumulated infection rate in Taiwan proper is about 37 percent, while in Kinmen and Lienchiang counties it is about 16 percent and 26 percent respectively.
The high infection rate among people aged 50 and younger in Taiwan proper has helped build up an immunity protection wall, which can also protect the elderly and more vulnerable people from getting infected, but the infection rates in outlying islands are lower, he said.
Photo: Sam Yeh, AFP
As China eases its COVID-19 restrictions, Kinmen County officials have called for the resumption of the “small three links,” with direct travel and trade between the county and China.
If travel is reopened without careful consideration, it might increase the risk of moderate-to-severe illness from COVID-19 in the vulnerable groups on the islands, Chen said.
Lin Ting-yu (林庭瑀), a member of Chen’s research team, said that according to a study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine journal, after China ends its “zero COVID-19” policy, an estimated 170 million to 280 million people would get infected, causing about 1.3 million to 2.1 million deaths.
Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model, the research team projected that about 550 million people in China could be infected by the end of March, and that the peak demand for beds in hospitals’ intensive care units could reach about 1 million, about 15 times its maximum capacity of 64,000 beds.
Although China has lifted many of its strict restrictions this month, it is also no longer reporting the number of asymptomatic infections, Chen said.
Based on reports of increased demand for fever relief drugs, the number of infections and deaths reported by the Chinese government would likely be underestimated, he said.
Separately, Chen said that although Taiwanese have high collective protection against COVID-19, people should still take preventive measures during the New Year and Lunar New Year holidays, as many overseas Taiwanese are expected to be returning.
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