Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is expected to maintain a tough stance on Taiwan and possibly increase the urgency of unification as he consolidates power in an unprecedented third term, analysts have said in the past few days.
As Xi is widely expected to cement a third term at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) today, many analysts are looking for clues on the strength of his grip on the presidency and the issues he might prioritize.
Taiwan is likely to remain near the top of the list, said Wang Hsin-hsien (王信賢), a professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies.
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Xi in the past 10 years has made Taiwan’s status a higher priority than previous administrations, Wang said at a forum in Taipei.
He said that unifying Taiwan with China has become pivotal to realizing what Xi in 2012 called the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
The CCP is likely to adopt several new proposals at the congress to set a foundation for policies and strategies for years to come, and could include language that shows an “increasing urgency” of addressing Taiwan’s status, Wang said.
Xi is also widely expected to secure another term as chairman of the CCP’s Central Military Commission (CMC).
A sign of the priority given to Taiwan would be the ascent of officers from the 73rd Group of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the CMC’s upper ranks, others said.
Formerly known as the 31st Group Army, the primary mission of the 73rd Group Army has been tasked with Taiwan’s capture in the event of an attack by China.
PLA officers involved in the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis — during which the PLA conducted military drills and missile tests in Taiwan’s vicinity — are expected to emerge among new CMC leaders, said Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), a professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.
Elevating PLA officials familiar with China’s military efforts toward Taiwan does not necessarily indicate that Xi is determined to take Taiwan by force, given the severe consequences China would likely incur, Lin and other experts said.
Xi has set the removal of US influence in the Asia-Pacific region as a long-term goal to enable Beijing to reshape the global order on its terms and become a global hegemon, former US deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger said on Monday at an event held by the RAND Corporation, Radio Free Asia reported.
Pottinger said that annexing Taiwan would be Beijing’s first step toward attaining regional domination, and he urged the US and Japan to make clear their security commitments toward Taiwan, according to the report.
Columbia University political science professor Andrew Nathan said that Xi would not ease efforts to expand China’s influence in Taiwan and abroad, including in the US, South Asia and Europe, even though there is growing resentment against Beijing in some nations.
The tactics Beijing has used in growing its influence in Taiwan and Hong Kong offer understanding of how Beijing is bolstering its international clout, Nathan said by videoconference at an event at Academia Sinica in Taipei on Friday.
Hanging over a potential third term for Xi is whether he could launch an attack or a blockade in an effort to annex Taiwan.
The government is preparing for “every eventuality,” even though China is likely to not be capable of amphibious warfare until 2027, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Chen Ming-tong (陳明通) said on Wednesday.
The centennial of the PLA’s founding, 2027, is seen by some analysts as a possible planned date for an attack on Taiwan.
CIA Director William Burns said in a recent US television interview that Xi “has instructed his military to be prepared by no later than 2027 to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan.”
That corresponds with a Taiwanese defense report to the legislature in June that the PLA would be capable of fighting Taiwan and allied forces by 2027. That would be near the end of Xi’s likely third term.
Xi’s break with convention by accepting a third term could create friction among China’s political elites and affect policymaking processes.
Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) introduced a presidential limit of two five-year terms in 1982, but the ceremonial parliament eliminated the limits for president and vice president in 2018, largely seen as a move influenced under Xi’s direction.
The 69-year-old Xi is also set to defy another traditional, but unwritten, CCP practice in the transfer of power — that CCP central leaders must retire by age 68.
Xi could appoint loyal party officials above the unofficial retirement age to enhance the legitimacy of his actions, said Shen Ming-shih (沈明室), director of the government affiliated Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
“There appears to be a consensus within the CCP” for Xi to stay in power, said Wu Qiang (吳強), a former professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, citing reported draft proposals from the CCP’s Central Committee for adoption at the congress.
In one proposal, Xi was given “full recognition” for how he has handled the COVID-19 pandemic, and issues related to Taiwan and Hong Kong, which should “cement Xi’s position as China’s leader” at the congress, Wu said.
Xi’s assertive foreign policy and measures introduced to consolidate the CCP’s control over the past 10 years have shown the same “expansionism” and “concentration of power” seen in Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) era, Acedemia Sinica research fellow Wu Yu-shan (吳玉山) said at a forum in Taipei.
Xi’s moves away from decades of institutionalized collective leadership and toward personal reverence could seed political instability in China under certain conditions, such as if a power vacuum were to arise, other local experts have said.
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