National Development Commission Minister Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫) defended the government’s roadmap for achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, although serious questions remain about Taiwan’s short-term goals and the plan’s dependence on technology.
Based on the roadmap’s targets, renewables would cover 60 to 70 percent of Taiwan’s electricity needs in 2050, with another 9 to 12 percent coming from hydrogen and 20 to 27 percent from fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilization and storage capabilities.
There has been skepticism about Taiwan’s ability to meet the goals, but Kung said in an interview that the goals are similar to those of other countries, such as South Korea and Japan.
Photo courtesy of Taichung City Government
South Korea anticipates obtaining 61 to 71 percent of its electricity needs from renewables by 2050, while Japan’s goal is 50 to 60 percent, he said.
Taiwan could obtain nearly 80 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2050 using solar and wind power, and other methods, but the report settled on a target of 60 to 70 percent because of geographical limitations and the current pace of deployment, Kung said.
There is a need to develop hydrogen power, improve approaches to carbon capture and recycling, and find more efficient ways of generating solar and offshore wind power, as the 2050 goal is dependent on advances in technology, he said.
“Taiwan is bringing in technologies from Europe and getting overseas companies to invest in Taiwan. Technology advances will be made in step with the world,” Kung said. “We will only fall short if the world falls short.”
However, those ambitions could be derailed fairly early on by funding issues, environmental groups said.
The roadmap commits the government to spending NT$900 billion (US$31.14 billion) over the next eight years as a foundation for the 2050 goal. Of that, NT$210.7 billion would go to renewables and hydrogen power, NT$207.8 billion would be spent on the electricity grid and energy storage, and another NT$168.3 billion would go to the promotion of electric transportation.
Greenpeace Taiwan criticized the budget as being only about one-third of the roughly NT$300 billion a year South Korea is investing in its energy transition plan, saying that the government has seriously underestimated the costs of pursuing carbon neutrality.
Half of Taiwan’s pledged investment would come from Taiwan’s state-run enterprises, including utility Taiwan Power Co and oil refiner CPC Corp, Taiwan, it said.
Both firms have faced financial difficulties in the past few years, Greenpeace said, asking where their funding would come from.
Meanwhile, the government would until 2030 focus on reducing energy consumption and laying the groundwork for new technologies that help achieve net-zero emissions, Kung said.
Of the NT$900 billion budget, NT$128 billion would be spent on incentives to reduce power consumption and replace old equipment, including inefficient factory and office air-conditioning systems, outdated 500 kilovolt-ampere transformers and power-guzzling 100 kilowatt motors.
Kung said the changes would have a “very big” impact on Taiwan’s overall energy consumption, but did not provide any context for the potential of those electricity savings.
“The budget for this will be a priority,” he said, adding that government agencies are planning to encourage the changes, as well as the adoption of “intelligent” production lines and the use of carbon reduction and net-zero principles in public infrastructure projects.
How much of an effect those measures would have on Taiwan’s emissions is an important question, given the urgency of bringing emissions down.
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report said limiting global warming to about 1.5°C would require greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by 43 percent by 2030.
Methane would also need to be reduced by about one-third, it said.
“It’s now or never if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C,” said Jim Skea, a professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London and cochair of the working group behind the report. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
At present, Taiwan’s goal is to reduce emissions by 10 to 20 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels, well short of the IPCC’s target.
Alan Lin (林子倫), deputy chief of the Cabinet’s Office of Energy and Carbon Reduction, said on Tuesday that the goal was not changed in the roadmap because there had not been time to discuss how to achieve it.
However it might be adjusted before the end of the year, he said.
That could be difficult, considering the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government’s current energy transition plan has already fallen behind schedule.
The DPP set a goal after taking power in mid-2016 of phasing out nuclear power and forging an electricity mix of 50 percent natural gas, 30 percent coal and 20 percent renewables by 2025, from about 14 percent nuclear, 45 percent coal, 31 percent natural gas, 4.5 percent oil-fired and 5 percent renewables in 2015.
However, the Ministry of Economic Affairs last year lowered the target for renewables to 15 percent, and Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua (王美花) recently said that the 20 percent goal would likely not be achieved until 2027.
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