The nation’s population last year dropped by an average of 509 people per day amid a record low number of births, with estimates predicting that the population might dip below 15 million in 50 years.
The population last year dropped by 185,922 from 2020 to 23.38 million, data released on Monday by the Ministry of the Interior (MOI) showed.
Only 153,820 births were recorded in the entire year, setting a record low and dipping below the death rate each month.
Photo: CNA
Last month, there were only 14,127 births, 19.5 percent fewer than the number recorded a year earlier.
Although the COVID-19 pandemic, economic fears and auspicious timing were expected to affect births, the figure is even lower than forecast, a National Development Council official said.
“The numbers are not optimistic,” the official added.
If the trend continues, the nation would be looking at the lower end of its population projection, the official said.
According to the most pessimistic of the council’s biannual projections released in August 2020, the population would only total 14.49 million by 2070.
This would spell trouble for the nation’s care burden, as the dependency ratio would climb to 102 percent from about 41 percent last year, meaning there would be one dependent for every working-age adult.
In an interview last year, National Taiwan University sociology professor James Hsueh (薛承泰) said that comparing population data from 2000 with estimates for 2040 shows a starkly different composition.
Although the population is about 22 million for both years, by 2040, the nation would be facing the dual challenge of a population that is both aging and shrinking, Hsueh said.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also dealt a blow to population numbers, with 2020 seeing the first decline since 2003, as those who have not returned to the country in two years are automatically labeled as having moved abroad.
However, the ministry advised that losing residency is not the same as losing citizenship, and it expects an increase in returnees once the pandemic eases.
Experts are also not optimistic about the birthrate this year, considering that the Year of the Tiger is an inauspicious year for births and marriage registrations last year also hit a new low of 114,606.
The birthrate would remain stable, Hsueh said, but due to the declining overall population, the total number of births would also decline.
The CIA in its World Factbook placed Taiwan at the tail end of its estimated fertility rate for last year at only 1.07 births per childbearing person, coming in just behind four other Asian countries or regions among a total of 227.
Additional reporting by Aaron Tu
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