Polling shows overwhelming support for referendums challenging government policy, suggesting a calamitous result for the administration if it does not take decisive action, the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation said yesterday.
The foundation was referencing the results of its latest public opinion survey on the four referendum questions, which are to be decided on Dec. 18 after a delay from Aug. 28 due to a local COVID-19 outbreak.
The four questions call for a ban on the importation of pork containing the leanness-enhancing additive ractopamine, relocating a natural gas terminal to protect algal reefs off Taoyuan’s Guanyin District (觀音), holding referendums alongside national elections and activating the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in New Taipei City’s Gongliao District (貢寮).
Of the 1,075 people polled, the vast majority supported the first three questions. Only the last question on nuclear power was more closely contested, although the respondents still leaned toward “yes,” foundation chairman Michael You (游盈隆) said.
If the government does not take decisive action to change people’s minds and stop the referendums from passing, it would have a “disastrous political impact, like a comet hitting the Earth,” You said.
As the questions all involve major policy positions held by President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration, the results could deal a major blow to its credibility, in addition to policy direction, he said.
The latest findings also indicate little change from surveys held before the vote was postponed, indicating a looming defeat for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, he added.
In the survey of Taiwanese aged 20 or over, respondents were asked how they would vote on each of the referendum proposals if the poll were held tomorrow.
On the ractopamine question, 68.1 percent said they would vote “yes” to only 25.7 percent who would oppose it, with 1.5 percent undecided, 1.1 percent saying they would not vote and 3.7 percent saying they did not know or refusing to answer.
The gap of 42.4 percentage points is the largest among the four questions, indicating a high likelihood of passing.
On the algal reefs question, 47.7 percent said they support it compared with 29.6 percent who opposed it, with 6.1 percent undecided, 2.2 percent saying they would not vote and 14.5 percent saying they did not know or refusing to answer.
The discrepancy was a narrower 18.1 percentage points, although still suggestive of a landslide victory.
On the referendum timing question, 57.4 percent were in favor to 34.2 percent opposed, with 1.7 percent undecided, 1.1 percent not voting and 5.6 percent declining response.
This question is also very likely to pass, with a lead of 23.2 percentage points for its supporters.
However, the question on nuclear power only saw a lead of 5 percentage points for “yes” voters, indicating a tighter race.
In the survey, 46.7 percent of respondents said they supported activating the power plant to 41.7 percent who were opposed, with 3.7 percent undecided, 1.3 percent saying they would not vote and 6.6 percent declining to answer.
According to You’s analysis, the four-month delay due to the COVID-19 outbreak has given Tsai’s government a precious opportunity to explain its position to the public and change minds, but it appears to have squandered its chance.
Quoting the adage in US politics that it is hard to “walk and chew gum at the same time,” You said it is understandable that the government is finding it difficult to campaign for referendums while fighting the pandemic.
The survey, designed by You and executed by Focus Survey Research, was conducted from Monday to Wednesday last week.
Pollsters selected participants via a nationwide sampling of residential telephone numbers, collecting 1,075 valid samples with a margin of error of 2.99 percentage points.
Results were weighted by region, gender, age and educational attainment according to the latest national demographic data.
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