Summers in Taiwan could grow longer from the current 130 days to 155 to 210 days by the end of this century, a report released yesterday by the Ministry of Science and Technology said.
The ministry in a news release also presented the key findings of a separate report issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and offered Taiwan’s historic and forecast data for comparison.
The average annual temperature in Taiwan rose by 1.6°C from 1911 to last year, with the trend accelerating over the past 30 to 50 years, the ministry said.
The average annual rainfall during the period did not change significantly, but the number of years with reduced rainfall increased after 1961, it said.
The ministry’s report referred to different scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways to project climate change risks for Taiwan.
The average annual temperature in Taiwan would continue to rise this century, increasing 1.3°C if ideal measures are taken to mitigate global warming, but rising by 1.8°C or even 3.4°C under the worst-case scenario, it said.
By the end of this century, the length of winter in Taiwan would shrink from 70 days to 50 days or even none, it said.
The nation’s average annual rainfall is projected to increase 12 to 31 percent, and the intensity of heavy rainfall in a single day might rise 15.3 to 41.3 percent, it said.
However, the number of consecutive rainless days has also been increasing, and are projected to increase by 0.4 to 12.4 percent, the report said.
The number of typhoons directly affecting Taiwan might fall by 55 percent, while the frequency of single severe typhoons would increase by 50 to 100 percent, it said.
The data were compiled by the ministry-funded Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform, Academia Sinica’s Research Center for Environmental Changes, the Central Weather Bureau, National Taiwan Normal University’s Department of Earth Sciences, and the ministry-affiliated National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction.
Representatives from the entities worked as a climate science team for about a decade, said Tang Tsung-ta (湯宗達), associate researcher at the ministry’s Department of Natural Sciences and Sustainable Development.
This is the first time the ministry presented its findings in a release soon after the climate change panel’s report and the move aims to adapt to today’s information circulation speed, he said, adding that the data could serve as a reference for policymakers.
For example, the agriculture sector could refer to the data to adjust crop production, such as shifting some crops from southern to northern areas as temperatures climb, he said.
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