A growing number of people are identifying as moderates instead of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters amid an outbreak of COVID-19 over the past few months, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found.
According to the survey of Taiwanese aged 20 or older, 28.2 percent identified with the DPP, while 18.9 percent identified with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and 48.2 percent said they were “moderates.”
The figures represent an almost 15 percentage point slip for the DPP over the past three months, compared with 43.1 percent support reported in the foundation’s March survey, it said.
Meanwhile, nearly 50 percent more people are identifying as moderates, compared with 36.2 percent in March, a 12 percentage point increase, the foundation added.
As identification with the KMT has remained steady from 19 percent in March, the results indicate a wave of “voter disassociation,” it said.
It also tightens the gap between DPP and KMT identification to only 9.3 percentage points, compared with 24.1 percentage points in March, it added.
This massive shift in party identification marks a fundamental reshaping of the voter base built over the past two-and-a-half years, the foundation said.
It also represents the lowest support rate for the DPP since December 2018, but has yet to reach the lowest rating in its five years as the governing party, when DPP identification dipped to 23.5 percent in November 2018, it added.
Identification with the KMT has also marked a new low since May 2016, it said.
In the 40 surveys that the foundation has conducted over the past five years, the rate of KMT identification has only fallen below 20 percent seven times, two of which were this year, it said.
After two consecutive poor showings, the foundation said it is worth observing whether the KMT can bounce back.
The surge in moderates is the second-highest since the DPP took the presidency in May 2016, it said.
It is also one of only two times in the past five years that the number of moderates surpassed the total of those identifying with the two main parties, the other time being in July 2018, it added.
This indicates that the two major parties are no longer representing their constituents, perhaps lending strength to calls for reorganizing the overall political party structure, the foundation said.
Also worth noting is the emergence of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) as a significant political force, as its approval rating has climbed 7.1 percentage points over the past three months, the foundation said.
This shows that the TPP is becoming a contender in its own right, as opposed to a loose faction pulling supporters from across the political spectrum, with as many as 61 percent of its supporters saying that the TPP is distinct from the two major parties, it added.
Of the 15.6 percent of voters who support the TPP, 31 percent said they identify with the KMT, while only 6.4 percent said they identify with the DPP, it said.
This again proves a slight overlap in the two parties’ support bases, but suggests their gradual differentiation, the foundation added.
The telephone survey conducted from June 15 to 19 collected 1,072 valid responses and has a margin of error of 2.99 percentage points.
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