Beijing’s treatment of Hong Kong is to serve as a blueprint of its future legal war against Taiwan if it decides against the military route, an expert told a forum yesterday regarding the implications of last week’s change to the territory’s election law.
The Friends of Hong Kong and Macau Association invited a panel of academics and experts on cross-strait affairs to discuss the current status of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong after China’s National People’s Congress on Thursday last week ratified rules ensuring that only “patriots” would run the territory.
According to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the issue is political rather than legal, Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies chief adviser Chao Chun-shan (趙春山) said.
The Chinese government’s reasons for swift and decisive action to bring Hong Kong in line are threefold, Chao said.
First, it believes that Hong Kong democracy advocates have been increasingly seeking independence through legal means via the Legislative Council, and fears that other disputed territories, such as Taiwan and Xinjiang, would follow suit, he said.
Second, Beijing is tired of international criticism over its handling of Hong Kong, especially after the US in 2019 passed a law mandating sanctions against officials responsible for human rights abuses in the territory, he said.
Lastly, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is looking to shore up his power and maintain stability ahead of next year’s 20th National Party Congress, when his second term is set to expire, Chao added.
According to the Constitution and the Act Governing Relations With Hong Kong and Macau (香港澳門關係條例), the government can express concern for Hong Kong and Macau, but not necessarily intervene, as it could affect cross-strait relations, he said.
As for the CCP’s legal aspirations for Taiwan, Chao said that China’s “Anti-Secession” Law aims to simultaneously oppose Taiwanese independence and facilitate unification, although it has not yet turned to legal tactics.
If China continues to avoid military conflict and cross-strait dialogue, it might unilaterally brandish the law as a weapon against Taiwan, he said.
Some potential weapons of concern to Chao are Taiwan’s classification as a “special administrative region” in China’s constitution, the potential of Beijing passing a “national unification law” and the presence of a Taiwan representative in the National People’s Congress.
Before the CCP wrote the so-called “1992 consensus” into its official documents, its definition was unclear, said Alexander Huang (黃介正), an associate professor in Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies and a former Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister.
Putting it down on paper not only limits space for interpretation, but also requires that others conform to its definition of the term, Huang added.
The “1992 consensus” — a term that former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) in 2006 admitted to making up in 2000 — refers to a tacit understanding between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the CCP that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge that there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means.
As Beijing has in recent years been bringing up a potential unification law or implementation of the “Anti-Secession” Law, Taiwan should do nothing to provoke such a move, Huang said.
Cross-Strait Policy Association president Stephen Tan (譚耀南) said that after the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous routine discussions could resume, but Taiwan must pay close attention to Beijing’s reaction.
The US and China are still working out the nature of their relationship moving forward, he said, adding that if US policy ends up centering around the Taiwan question, it would be the nexus of all US-China negotiations.
“The government of course wishes to restore cross-strait exchange, but whether it can ease Beijing’s unilateral legislation is worth keeping an eye on,” he said.
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