As relations between Taiwan and China continue to deteriorate, there is no immediate solution to the cross-strait stalemate in sight, National Policy Foundation member Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) said yesterday.
Lin, a former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmaker who had chaired the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, made the remarks at a forum in Taipei titled “The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Military Threat to Taiwan” organized by the KMT-affiliated think tank.
While the foundation does not believe that a war between Taiwan and China is looming or inevitable, “it is true that cross-strait relations are very bad and continue to deteriorate,” he said.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
Compared with other places that have long been viewed as a hot spot for an outbreak of war in Asia, such as the border between India and China, or the Diaoyutais (釣魚台), he believes that “the Taiwan Strait is probably a truly more dangerous place,” he said.
Beijing considers the cross-strait issue “a civil war that did not end,” he said.
“Right now, we do not see a solution to the deadlock between the two sides of the Strait,” he said.
“The two sides are deadlocked over the ‘1992 consensus,’” with neither side giving in, he said.
“The CCP believes that ‘if I no longer use the 1992 consensus as a precondition for cross-strait reconciliation, then it means that I surrender to Taiwanese independence,’” Lin said.
For President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), recognizing the “1992 consensus” would be equivalent to admitting that Taiwan and China “will eventually be unified,” he added.
The so-called “1992 consensus,” a term former Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) chairman Su Chi (蘇起) in 2006 admitted making up in 2000, refers to a tacit understanding between the KMT and the CCP that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means.
“Cross-strait relations are now entering a winter and freezing over,” Lin said.
Although new MAC Minister Chiu Tai-san (邱太三), who was sworn in on Tuesday, has said he is to promote a reconciliation and “blossoming” of cross-strait relations, “one swallow does not make a summer,” Lin said.
It will be a long time before cross-strait relations “blossom,” he said.
Former minister of national defense Andrew Yang (楊念祖) told the forum that in his 30-plus years of studying the Chinese People Liberation’s Army, he has never felt as much attention being paid by the international community to the Chinese military’s actions near the Taiwan Strait as there is today.
National security officials should be mindful that as military tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, international expectations and pressure on Taiwan would also increase, he said.
In related news, a US Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer on Wednesday transited through the Taiwan Strait in a routine operation, the second by a US battleship since US President Joe Biden assumed office on Jan. 20.
“An American battleship sailed from north to south through the Taiwan Strait and continued moving south,” the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement, without naming the ship, although a press release from the US 7th Fleet said it was the USS Curtis Wilbur.
“The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54) conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Feb. 24 (local time) in accordance with international law,” the US 7th Fleet statement said.
“The ship’s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the US’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows,” it said.
On Feb. 4, the USS John S. McCain, also an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, sailed through the Taiwan Strait, the first such operation since Biden took office.
Additional reporting by CNA
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