The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is likely to win all three seats in next month’s legislative by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties, a university prediction market said yesterday.
The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said that, on a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of a DPP victory according to bidders as of 10:30am yesterday was NT$80.9 in Taoyuan County, NT$65.0 in Taichung County and NT$87.9 in Taitung County.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidates were rated at NT$17.1 in Taoyuan County, at NT$25.1 in Taichung County and at NT$17.8 in Taitung County.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University covers politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
The three by-elections will be held on Jan. 9.
The vote in Taoyuan County is being held following the invalidation of the election of the KMT’s Liao Cheng-ching (廖正井) following his conviction for vote-buying.
The KMT has nominated Chen Li-ling (陳麗玲) as its new candidate. She will be running against the DPP’s Kuo June-tsung (郭榮宗).
The Taichung legislative by-election will be held to fill the seat left vacant by former KMT legislator Chiang Lien-fu (江連福), whose election status was also annulled over vote-buying. Taiping Mayor Yu Wen-chin (余文欽) is standing against the DPP’s Chien Chao-tung (簡肇棟).
KMT Legislator Justin Huang (黃健庭) resigned in October to run in this month’s Taitung County commissioner election, making him the seventh lawmaker in the current legislature to fail to complete his legislative term.
The KMT nominated Taitung County Commissioner Kuang Li-chen (鄺麗貞) to run in the county’s legislative by-election amid claims by the DPP that the nomination was a trade-off for an undertaking not to seek re-election as county commissioner. Kuang’s DPP rival is Lai Kun-cheng (賴坤成).
The center accurately predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the local elections on Dec. 5, while the DPP would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections.
Although the DPP secured only four areas, it received 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
TENSIONS: The Chinese aircraft and vessels were headed toward the western Pacific to take part in a joint air and sea military exercise, the Ministry of National Defense said A relatively large number of Chinese military aircraft and vessels were detected in Taiwan’s vicinity yesterday morning, apparently en route to a Chinese military exercise in the western Pacific, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said. In a statement, the ministry said 36 Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, including J-16 fighters and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait or an extension of it, and were detected in the southern and southeastern parts of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) from 5:20am to 9:30am yesterday. They were headed toward the western Pacific to take part in a
Honor guards are to stop performing changing of the guard ceremonies around a statue of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) to avoid “worshiping authoritarianism,” the Ministry of Culture said yesterday. The fate of the bronze statue has long been the subject of fierce and polarizing debate in Taiwan, which has transformed from an autocracy under Chiang into one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. The changing of the guard each hour at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei is a major tourist attraction, but starting from 9am on Monday, the ceremony is to be moved outdoors to Democracy Boulevard, outside the eponymous blue-and-white memorial
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) supports peaceful unification with China, and President William Lai (賴清德) is “a bit naive” for being a “practical worker for Taiwanese independence,” former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said in an interview published yesterday. Asked about whether the KMT is on the same page as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on the issue of Taiwanese independence or unification with China, Ma told the Malaysian Chinese-language newspaper Sin Chew Daily that they are not. While the KMT supports peaceful unification and is against unification by force, the DPP opposes unification as such and
CASES SLOWING: Although weekly COVID-19 cases are rising, the growth rate has been falling, from 90 percent to 30 percent, 14 percent and 6 percent, the CDC said COVID-19 hospitalizations last week rose 6 percent to 987, while deaths soared 55 percent to 99, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said yesterday, adding that the recent wave of infections would likely peak this week. People aged 65 or older accounted for 79 percent of the hospitalizations and 90 percent of the deaths, the majority of whom have or had underlying health conditions, CDC data showed. The youngest hospitalized case last week was a six-month-old, who was born preterm and was unvaccinated, CDC physician Lin Yung-ching (林詠青) said. The infant had a fever, coughing and a runny nose early this month, but