The winner of next month’s US presidential election will govern a nation of more than 330 million people, but the contest will almost certainly be decided by just tens of thousands of voters — a tiny fraction of the populace — in a handful of states.
That’s because only seven of the 50 states are truly competitive this year, with the rest all comfortably Democratic or Republican, according to public opinion polls. Among those seven battlegrounds, Pennsylvania, the most populous, stands out as the most likely state to determine whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump is the next president.
The candidates’ strategies reflect this reality, with the vast majority of their ad spending and campaign events directed at those seven states that swing between political parties.
Photo: AFP 照片：法新社
WHY ISN’T THE ELECTION DECIDED BY THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE?
Unlike elections for other federal candidates and statewide offices, the presidential contest is not solely based on the popular vote. Instead, under a system known as the Electoral College, the winning candidate in each state, as well as Washington, D.C., receives that state’s electoral votes, which are largely based on population.
A candidate needs to win a majority of the country’s 538 electoral votes, or 270, which is possible even when losing the overall national vote, as Trump did when he won the White House in 2016.
Photo: EPA-EFE 照片：歐新社
WHICH STATES ARE CONSIDERED IN PLAY?
There are seven states that could swing either way on Nov. 5: the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt quartet of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had served as a “blue wall” for Democratic candidates for a generation. But, in 2016, Trump narrowly carried all three, fueling his upset victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Photo: EPA-EFE 照片：歐新社
Four years later, Joe Biden won the presidency after reclaiming Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Democrats, while also notching surprising victories in Georgia and Arizona, two states that had historically voted Republican.
HOW CLOSE IS THIS ELECTION?
As close as it gets.
Photo: EPA-EFE 照片：歐新社
As of Oct. 16, according to a New York Times public poll tracker, all seven battleground states were in a virtual dead heat. Trump held a narrow 2-percentage-point lead in Arizona; the other six swing states were all within a point on average, the tracker showed.
The race appears even closer than the 2020 contest. That year, a shift of only 43,000 votes in three states — less than 1/3 of a percentage point of all voters nationwide — from Biden to Trump would have been enough for Trump to win reelection.
(Reuters)
11月的美國總統選舉，勝選者將治理一個人口超過3.3億的國家，但幾乎可以確定的是，這場選戰將由少數州的數萬名選民（佔總人口的一小部分）所決定。
這是因為民意調查顯示，今年50州中只有7個州真正處於纏鬥狀態，其餘州都能很容易區分為支持民主黨或共和黨。在這7個戰場中，人口最多的賓州成為最有可能決定民主黨賀錦麗抑或共和黨唐納．川普孰為下一任總統的州。
候選人的策略反映了這一現實，他們的絕大多數廣告支出和競選活動都針對這七個在政黨之間搖擺不定的州。
美國總統選舉為何不是全國普選？
與美國其他聯邦候選人及州政府的選舉不同，總統選舉不僅僅基於普選，而是實施一種叫做「選舉人團」的制度，每個州以及華盛頓特區勝出的候選人會獲得該州所有的選舉人票，選舉人票的數目主要是依人口決定。
若要當選總統，需在全美國538張選舉人票中贏得多數，即270張；即便全國總得票數落後，還是有可能達到這目標，就像川普2016年贏得美國總統大選的情況一樣。
哪些州被認為是搖擺州？
有7個州可能會在11月5日倒向民主黨或是共和黨：密西根州、賓州和威斯康辛州這「鐵鏽帶」3州，以及亞利桑那州、喬治亞州、內華達州和北卡羅萊納州這4個屬於「太陽帶」的州。
密西根州、賓州和威斯康辛州有一個世代的時間一直是支持民主黨候選人的「藍牆」州。但在2016年，川普在這3州都以些許優勢獲勝，讓他爆冷擊敗民主黨的希拉蕊．柯林頓。
4年後，喬‧拜登為民主黨奪回密西根、威斯康辛和賓州，同時還出乎意料地在喬治亞州及亞利桑那州這兩個傳統上支持共和黨的州獲勝，當選了總統。
這次選舉戰況有多緊繃？
選情極為膠著，兩方勢均力敵。
《紐約時報》一項民意調查追蹤顯示，截至10月16日，所有7個戰況緊繃的搖擺州實際上都處於膠著狀態。川普在亞利桑那州以2個百分點的微幅優勢領先，其他6個搖擺州的差距平均都在1個百分點以內。
這場選戰看來比2020年的大選更為激烈。那一年，只要把3個州的43,000張選票（不到全國選民的1/3個百分點）從拜登轉向川普，就足以讓川普連任。
（台北時報林俐凱編譯）
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