Have you ever read your horoscope and thought the predictions were extraordinarily accurate? If so, you’ve experienced the “Barnum effect,” also called the “Forer effect.” This psychological phenomenon refers to the tendency of people to believe that vague, general statements are specific descriptions of themselves.
The Barnum effect works exceptionally well for positive statements, as most people’s egos enjoy praise and reject criticism. It’s named after American businessman P.T. Barnum, who’s strongly associated with the phrase, “There’s a sucker born every minute.” This declaration conveys humans’ gullible nature and desire to believe the good things they’re told about themselves.
This common cognitive bias was demonstrated through an experiment conducted by American professor Bertram R. Forer in 1948. His students completed individual personality surveys and were told that they would be analyzed and custom feedback would be returned. Most students evaluated the feedback quality as very accurate. However, Forer had given each student the exact same results! General statements like: “You have a great need for people to like and admire you” and “You have a tendency to be critical of yourself” applied to almost everyone.
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We’re used to identifying universally valid statements in astrology and fortune telling, but where else can we see the Barnum effect? Digital platforms like Netflix and Spotify generate content recommendations on our profile. These are partly based on our user history, but they’re also general lists suggested for many users at the same time. However, we’re more likely to consume content when we think it’s personally selected for us!
To avoid being deceived by the Barnum effect, be aware that it’s happening and stay skeptical. Look for specific statements, not general ones. While being fooled may sometimes be harmless, avoiding being manipulated by the Barnum effect can help prevent us from making decisions that may not be rational or wise.
你有沒有看過你的星座運勢，並認為這些預測非常準確呢？若是如此，你已經體驗過「巴納姆效應」了，也被稱為「福勒效應」。這種心理現象指的是人們傾向於相信模糊、籠統的陳述是對自己的具體描述。
巴納姆效應對正面的陳述特別有效，因為大多數人的自尊心喜好讚美而拒絕批評。它以美國商人P．T．巴納姆的名字命名，而巴納姆與「每一分鐘都有一個傻瓜誕生」這句諺語有著密切關聯。這句宣言傳達了人類容易受騙的天性，以及渴望相信別人告訴他們的關於自己的好事。
美國教授伯特倫．R．福勒在西元1948年進行的一項實驗證明了這種常見的認知偏誤。他的學生完成了個人人格調查，並被告知調查會被分析及接收到個人化的回饋意見。大多數學生都將回饋意見的品質評為非常準確。然而，福勒教授給了每位學生完全相同的結果！像是「你非常需要人們喜歡和欽佩你」和「你傾向對自己吹毛求疵」這樣籠統的陳述幾乎適用於所有人。
我們習慣於識別占星術與算命中普遍合理的陳述，但我們還能在哪裡看到巴納姆效應呢？Netflix和Spotify等數位平台會在我們的個人檔案中產生內容推薦。這些部分是基於我們的用戶歷史記錄，但它們也是同時向許多用戶建議的一般列表。然而，當我們認為這是為我們個人挑選的時候，我們就更有可能看這些內容！
為了避免被巴納姆效應所欺騙，請留意它正在發生並保持懷疑。尋找具體的陳述，而非籠統的陳述。雖然被愚弄有時可能是無害的，但避免被巴納姆效應操縱有助於防止我們做出不理性或不明智的抉擇。
More Information
cognitive adj. 認知的；感知的
horoscope n. 星座運勢；星相
ego n. 自尊心；自我評價
sucker n. 傻瓜；易受騙的人
gullible adj. 容易受騙的；輕信的
astrology n. 占星術；占星學
skeptical adj. 懷疑的
Key Vocabulary
1. bias n. 偏見；偏差
The judge was dismissed after he was proved unable to set aside his personal biases.
這名法官在被證明無法放下他的個人偏見後被革職。
2. psychological adj. 心理(學)的
The lawyer questioned the man about his psychological state at the time of the crime.
律師詢問男子有關他犯罪當時的心理狀態。
3. phenomenon n. 現象(複數 phenomena)
It was a great experience to witness the phenomenon of the Northern Lights.
親眼看見北極光現象是一次很棒的經歷。
4. exceptionally adv. 特別地；異常地
When her husband started acting exceptionally sweet, Reina got suspicious that he’d done something wrong.
當蕊娜的丈夫開始表現得特別貼心時，她懷疑他做錯事了。
5. criticism n. 批評；批判
Although he didn’t show it in the meeting, Zeke’s client’s harsh criticism really hurt his feelings.
雖然齊克在會議上沒有表現出來，但是客戶嚴厲的批評真的讓他很受傷。
6. demonstrate v. 證明；顯示
The results of the experiment demonstrated that crows and ravens are very intelligent birds.
這項實驗的結果顯示烏鴉和渡鴉是非常聰明的鳥類。
7. feedback n. 回饋意見
All of the students in this writing class will receive immediate feedback on their stories.
這門寫作課所有學生都會收到關於他們故事的即時回饋意見。
8. universally adv. 普遍地；一般地
The clock in London’s Elizabeth Tower is universally known as Big Ben.
倫敦伊麗莎白塔裡的時鐘普遍被稱作大笨鐘。
9. manipulate vt. 操縱；控制
Pauline likes to manipulate her friends to get what she wants.
寶琳喜歡操控她的朋友來得到她想要的。
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