Every president must understand the limits of what can realistically be accomplished in four years. The purpose of a first term is to lay the foundation for re-election to a second term. Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) historic mission is to reform Taiwan's political system and prove that the DPP is capable of governing. As a minority president with a fragmented legislature, he must realize the difficulty he will have in implementing his agenda. Therefore his best hope lies in pressing forward in the two areas of clear consensus in this election campaign: political reform and cautious broadening of economic relations with China. All other breakthroughs and accomplishments obviously would be welcome, but should be goals toward which to strive in a second term.
Political reform was the overwhelming mandate of the 2000 election, and Chen must deliver on it. If the DPP is unable to reform Taiwan's money politics, no one can. Chen must remove this stain from Taiwan's otherwise stunning democratic record. It is not possible to complete this work in one, or even two, terms in office. Chen's job in his first term will be to chart a course, achieve good initial progress, broaden the base of support for his reform agenda in the legislature by coalition-building or election competition. And then, to make a case for re-election, he should ask voters to allow him to stay the course for four more years to give his seeds of reform a chance to bare fruit.
Pre-emptive diplomacy
The one issue that has the potential to sabotage President-elect Chen's domestic and overseas agendas is conflict with Beijing. While a certain degree of hostility and animosity is inevitable between Taipei and Beijing, Chen should be pro-active in trying to neutralize cross-strait issues to keep them from overwhelming his domestic agenda. Since election night, he has been off to a good start by setting a conciliatory tone without sacrificing Taiwan's security or sovereignty. The goal is not to push for unrealistic progress, but to grant yourself sufficient leeway to spend scarce political capital on what should be your one and only major priority -- domestic reform.
There was a form of consensus on cross-strait relations during the election campaign forced out of the candidates by Beijing's belligerent white paper.
Chen would be wise to use statements made by James Soong in the wake of Zhu Rongji's (
And that's the main point. Chen needs to establish some early rules of the road that will allow him to move forward on cross-strait relations when possible, but also avoid undue criticism when progress is not possible.There was a second consensus on cross-strait relations coming out of the election. It has to do with President Lee's legacy. Chen has no difficulty with Lee's "special state-to-state relations" assertion. No candidate made a coherent case against it. It is the mainstream Taiwanese view. But there was more to Lee's policy than this. It has to do with Taiwan's democratic transformation, and this is the side of Lee's legacy that Chen would do well to emphasize.
Leaving well enough alone
President Lee consistently asserted that democracy in China was a precondition for unification, and (consistent with Chen's long-standing position) any change in Taiwan's status must meet with the approval of the Taiwanese. Even Soong publicly endorsed the latter condition. While many in the US government were critical of Lee Teng-hui's "two-state theory," no one has yet questioned his democracy precondition. It's unassailable and paints Beijing as extreme for opposing it.
The fact is that progress on cross-strait relations during Chen's first term will be difficult. Beijing will place a high price on Chen's "mission of peace" to China. It will press very hard to get him to agree to Beijing's "one-China" principle and publicly denounce "special state-to-state relations." Chen cannot and should not do this. Rather than get caught in Beijing's sovereignty trap, Chen should change the subject and strenuously emphasize economic rather than political breakthroughs.
Chen made some bold and interesting proposals during the campaign. All candidates agreed that the "three links" should be established with China, as long as Taiwan's security is adequately protected in the process.
But only Chen proposed establishing a free trade zone across the Taiwan Strait. This is a brilliant strategy.
Beijing can hardly object and the US should whole-heartedly endorse the idea. With both sides hoping to join the World Trade Organization at the earliest possible date, these trade issues are the best hope for breaking the deadlock on cross-strait talks. It gets Taiwan out of the sovereignty trap, of which the US seems to be unaware in pressing for resumption of dialogue. And it places the burden on Beijing to be flexible on an issue with clear win-win potential.
This is the best possible position for Chen's new administration. He would strongly represent the overwhelming consensus within Taiwan, and would take a posture totally consistent with Washington's policy of "engagement."
If China won't play ball, Chen can turn inward and focus on domestic reform with Washington's blessing. If Beijing decides to proceed, Chen will have achieved the greatest breakthrough in recent cross-strait history -- getting Taiwan out of Beijing's sovereignty trap and focusing cross-strait dialogue on areas of potential substantive progress.
For this strategy to succeed, Chen must move quickly. His opponents already have a head start -- Beijing in its White Paper and the KMT in its campaign ads. Chen needs to craft a clear, concise, and simple message describing his China policy. It should emphasize themes, not details.
Stick with it, and be sure everyone in your administration knows it by heart. Fall back on it when challenged or attacked. It is a lifeline through the inevitable fog produced by Beijing and Washington. It also is your only way to ensure that your administration is defined by its accomplishments instead of the criticism of your opponents.
Good luck.
Stephen Yates (葉望輝) is a senior policy analyst at The Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center.
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