There is a “moderate” likelihood of a cross-strait war this year that could have a “high” impact on US interests, a survey by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations said on Tuesday.
“Intensified military and economic pressure by China toward Taiwan” is listed among other “top conflicts to watch in 2025” as a “Tier I (High Priority)” potential war, the think tank’s Center for Preventative Action (CPA) said in a report.
China’s hostile actions toward Taiwan could “precipitate a severe cross-strait crisis involving the United States and other countries in the region,” the report said, adding that such a scenario could “suddenly ignite.”
Photo: CNA
The report, titled “Preventive Priorities Survey 2025,” is based on 680 responses from foreign policy experts collected in November last year. It “evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their expected impact on US interests.”
A potential armed conflict between Taiwan and China has been listed as a “moderate likelihood” and “high impact” Tier I contingency every year since 2020 in the CPA’s annual report.
Other moderate-likelihood and high-impact conflict scenarios listed alongside a possible cross-strait war in this year’s report are cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure, “aggressive Chinese actions” in the South China Sea, and “domestic terrorism and political violence” in the US.
The highest-risk potential conflict scenarios — those listed as of high likelihood and high impact — in the survey included “a continuation of the Israel-Hamas war” and “increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank.”
They also include “major Russian military gains in Ukraine,” “an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel” and heightened “tensions with Mexico.”
A humanitarian crisis in Haiti, “accelerated state collapse” in Lebanon, and “increased Russian military provocations and influence operations in eastern Europe” are listed as high-likelihood and moderate-impact potential conflict scenarios.
The Council on Foreign Relations “generates policy-relevant ideas and analysis, convenes experts and policymakers, and promotes informed public discussion,” the report said.
SECURITY: As China is ‘reshaping’ Hong Kong’s population, Taiwan must raise the eligibility threshold for applications from Hong Kongers, Chiu Chui-cheng said When Hong Kong and Macau citizens apply for residency in Taiwan, it would be under a new category that includes a “national security observation period,” Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) said yesterday. President William Lai (賴清德) on March 13 announced 17 strategies to counter China’s aggression toward Taiwan, including incorporating national security considerations into the review process for residency applications from Hong Kong and Macau citizens. The situation in Hong Kong is constantly changing, Chiu said to media yesterday on the sidelines of the Taipei Technology Run hosted by the Taipei Neihu Technology Park Development Association. With
CARROT AND STICK: While unrelenting in its military threats, China attracted nearly 40,000 Taiwanese to over 400 business events last year Nearly 40,000 Taiwanese last year joined industry events in China, such as conferences and trade fairs, supported by the Chinese government, a study showed yesterday, as Beijing ramps up a charm offensive toward Taipei alongside military pressure. China has long taken a carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan, threatening it with the prospect of military action while reaching out to those it believes are amenable to Beijing’s point of view. Taiwanese security officials are wary of what they see as Beijing’s influence campaigns to sway public opinion after Taipei and Beijing gradually resumed travel links halted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the scale of
A US Marine Corps regiment equipped with Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) is set to participate in the upcoming Balikatan 25 exercise in the Luzon Strait, marking the system’s first-ever deployment in the Philippines. US and Philippine officials have separately confirmed that the Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) — the mobile launch platform for the Naval Strike Missile — would take part in the joint exercise. The missiles are being deployed to “a strategic first island chain chokepoint” in the waters between Taiwan proper and the Philippines, US-based Naval News reported. “The Luzon Strait and Bashi Channel represent a critical access
Pope Francis is be laid to rest on Saturday after lying in state for three days in St Peter’s Basilica, where the faithful are expected to flock to pay their respects to history’s first Latin American pontiff. The cardinals met yesterday in the Vatican’s synod hall to chart the next steps before a conclave begins to choose Francis’ successor, as condolences poured in from around the world. According to current norms, the conclave must begin between May 5 and 10. The cardinals set the funeral for Saturday at 10am in St Peter’s Square, to be celebrated by the dean of the College