There is a “moderate” likelihood of a cross-strait war this year that could have a “high” impact on US interests, a survey by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations said on Tuesday.
“Intensified military and economic pressure by China toward Taiwan” is listed among other “top conflicts to watch in 2025” as a “Tier I (High Priority)” potential war, the think tank’s Center for Preventative Action (CPA) said in a report.
China’s hostile actions toward Taiwan could “precipitate a severe cross-strait crisis involving the United States and other countries in the region,” the report said, adding that such a scenario could “suddenly ignite.”
Photo: CNA
The report, titled “Preventive Priorities Survey 2025,” is based on 680 responses from foreign policy experts collected in November last year. It “evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their expected impact on US interests.”
A potential armed conflict between Taiwan and China has been listed as a “moderate likelihood” and “high impact” Tier I contingency every year since 2020 in the CPA’s annual report.
Other moderate-likelihood and high-impact conflict scenarios listed alongside a possible cross-strait war in this year’s report are cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure, “aggressive Chinese actions” in the South China Sea, and “domestic terrorism and political violence” in the US.
The highest-risk potential conflict scenarios — those listed as of high likelihood and high impact — in the survey included “a continuation of the Israel-Hamas war” and “increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank.”
They also include “major Russian military gains in Ukraine,” “an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel” and heightened “tensions with Mexico.”
A humanitarian crisis in Haiti, “accelerated state collapse” in Lebanon, and “increased Russian military provocations and influence operations in eastern Europe” are listed as high-likelihood and moderate-impact potential conflict scenarios.
The Council on Foreign Relations “generates policy-relevant ideas and analysis, convenes experts and policymakers, and promotes informed public discussion,” the report said.
NETWORK-MAPPING PROJECT: The database contains 170 detailed files of Taiwanese politicians and about 23 million records of household registration data in Taiwan China has developed a network-mapping project targeting political figures and parties in Taiwan to monitor public opinion during elections and to craft tailored influence campaigns aimed at dividing Taiwanese society, according to documents leaked by Chinese technology firm GoLaxy (中科天璣). The documents, collected by Taipei-based Doublethink Lab, showed a database was specifically created to gather detailed information on Taiwanese political figures, including their political affiliations, job histories, birthplaces, residences, education, religion and a brief biography about them. Several notable Taiwanese politicians are in the database, including President William Lai (賴清德), former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍),
RECOGNITION: Former Fijian prime minister Mahendra Chaudhry said that Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy serves as a stabilizing force in the Indo-Pacific region Taiwan can lead the unification of the Chinese people, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former Polish president Lech Walesa said in Taipei yesterday, adding that as the world order is changing, peaceful discussion would find good solutions, and that the use of force and coercion would always fail. Walesa made the remarks during his keynote address at a luncheon of the Yushan Forum in Taipei, titled “Indo-Pacific Partnership Prospects: Taiwan’s Values, Technology and Resilience,” organized by the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Walesa said that he had been at the forefront of a big peaceful revolution and “if
KEY INDUSTRY: The vice premier discussed a plan to create a non-red drone supply chain by next year, which has been allocated a budget of more than NT$7.2 billion The government has budgeted NT$44.2 billion (US$1.38 billion) to cultivate Taiwan’s uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) industry over the next five years, which would make the nation a major player in the industry’s democratic supply chain in the Asia-Pacific region, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said yesterday. Cho made the remarks during a visit to the facilities of Cub Elecparts Inc (為升電裝). Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Chen Su-yueh (陳素月) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Hsieh Yi-fong (謝依鳳) also participated in the trip. Cub Elecparts has transitioned from the automotive industry to the defense industry, which is the top priority among the nation’s
UPGRADED MISSILE: The Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology is reportedly to conduct a live-fire test of the Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile on Thursday next week The US Army is planning to build new facilities to boost explosives production and strengthen its supply chain, a move aimed at addressing munitions shortages and supporting obligations to partners including Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel, Defense News reported. The army has issued a sources sought notice for a proposed Center of Excellence at the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky, the report said. The facility would serve as a hub within the US industrial base for the production of key military explosives, including research department explosives (RDX) and high melting explosives (HMX), while also supporting research and development of next-generation materials. The proposed
RSS