There is a “moderate” likelihood of a cross-strait war this year that could have a “high” impact on US interests, a survey by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations said on Tuesday.
“Intensified military and economic pressure by China toward Taiwan” is listed among other “top conflicts to watch in 2025” as a “Tier I (High Priority)” potential war, the think tank’s Center for Preventative Action (CPA) said in a report.
China’s hostile actions toward Taiwan could “precipitate a severe cross-strait crisis involving the United States and other countries in the region,” the report said, adding that such a scenario could “suddenly ignite.”
Photo: CNA
The report, titled “Preventive Priorities Survey 2025,” is based on 680 responses from foreign policy experts collected in November last year. It “evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their expected impact on US interests.”
A potential armed conflict between Taiwan and China has been listed as a “moderate likelihood” and “high impact” Tier I contingency every year since 2020 in the CPA’s annual report.
Other moderate-likelihood and high-impact conflict scenarios listed alongside a possible cross-strait war in this year’s report are cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure, “aggressive Chinese actions” in the South China Sea, and “domestic terrorism and political violence” in the US.
The highest-risk potential conflict scenarios — those listed as of high likelihood and high impact — in the survey included “a continuation of the Israel-Hamas war” and “increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank.”
They also include “major Russian military gains in Ukraine,” “an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel” and heightened “tensions with Mexico.”
A humanitarian crisis in Haiti, “accelerated state collapse” in Lebanon, and “increased Russian military provocations and influence operations in eastern Europe” are listed as high-likelihood and moderate-impact potential conflict scenarios.
The Council on Foreign Relations “generates policy-relevant ideas and analysis, convenes experts and policymakers, and promotes informed public discussion,” the report said.
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