The global consequences of a war over Taiwan would be as great as the impact of World War II, making the world “a radically different place,” Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd on Thursday.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who turns 71 this month, wants to achieve “final national unification” with Taiwan, he would likely act in the next decade before he reaches his 80s, Rudd said in a speech in Honolulu.
“We would be foolish to ignore the increasing clarity of China’s military signaling, including the pattern of its most recent military exercises,” said Rudd, who was twice Australian prime minister in the previous decade.
Photo: Reuters
Whether China acts would depend on its perception of the strength of US deterrence, he said.
The US has expressed concern about Chinese military activity near Taiwan, including after the presidential election and the inauguration of President William Lai (賴清德) last month.
Taiwan and the US have no official diplomatic relationship, as Washington formally recognizes Beijing, but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and is the nation’s most important international backer.
The US recognized that if China was successful in annexing Taiwan, it would impact US credibility and have “profound, and potentially irreversible effect on the perceived reliability of US alliances worldwide,” Rudd said.
The US, China and Taiwan have a common interest in avoiding open military confrontation on the future of Taiwan, said Rudd, a China academic who was president of the Asia Society in New York until last year.
“The economic costs, domestic political impacts and unknowable geostrategic consequences that such a war would generate would likely be of an order of magnitude that we have not seen since the Second World War,” he said.
“Whatever the outcome (a US victory, a Chinese victory or a bloody stalemate), the world is likely to become a radically different place after such a war than it was before,” Rudd said.
DEATH THREAT: A MAC official said that it has urged Beijing to avoid creating barriers that would impede exchanges across the Strait, but it continues to do so People should avoid unnecessary travel to China after Beijing issued 22 guidelines allowing its courts to try in absentia and sentence to death “Taiwan independence separatists,” the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday as it raised its travel alert for China, including Hong Kong and Macau, to “orange.” The guidelines published last week “severely threaten the personal safety of Taiwanese traveling to China, Hong Kong and Macau,” MAC Deputy Minister and spokesman Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) told a news conference in Taipei. “Following a comprehensive assessment, the government considers it necessary to elevate the travel alert to orange from yellow,” Liang said. Beijing has
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) yesterday said that the Chinese Communist Party was planning and implementing “major” reforms, ahead of a political conclave that is expected to put economic recovery high on the agenda. Chinese policymakers have struggled to reignite growth since late 2022, when restrictions put in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic were lifted. The world’s second-largest economy is beset by a debt crisis in the property sector, persistently low consumption and high unemployment among young people. Policymakers “are planning and implementing major measures to further deepen reform in a comprehensive manner,” Xi said in a speech at the Great Hall
CIVIL DEFENSE: More reservists in alternative service would help establish a sound civil defense system for use in wartime and during natural disasters, Kuma Academy’s CEO said While a total of 120,000 reservists are expected to be called up for alternative reserve drills this year, compared with the 6,505 drilled last year, the number has been revised to 58,000 due to a postponed training date, Deputy Minster of the Interior Ma Shih-yuan (馬士元) said. In principle, the ministry still aims to call up 120,000 reservists for alternative reserve drills next year, he said, but the actual number would not be decided later until after this year’s evaluation. The increase follows a Legislative Yuan request that the Ministry of the Interior address low recruitment rates, which it made while reviewing
SOLUTIONS NEEDED: Taiwan must attract about 400,000 to 500,000 skilled foreign workers due to population decline, the minister of economic affairs said in Washington President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration is considering a plan to import labor to deal with an impending shortage of engineers and other highly skilled workers, Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) said in Washington on Tuesday. Kuo was leading a delegation attending the SelectUSA Investment Summit. Taiwan must attract about 400,000 to 500,000 skilled foreign workers for high-end manufacturing jobs by 2040, he said. Ministry of Economic Affairs officials are still calculating the precise number of workers that are needed, as it works on loosening immigration restrictions and creating incentives, Kuo said. Taiwanese firms operating factories in the US and other countries would