The military should prioritize protecting the country’s crucial infrastructure, maintaining combat readiness and decentralizing its military command, to build an effective national defense against a possible full-scale invasion by China, a military think tank said in an annual report.
The recommendations were made in the 2023 Report on the Development of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politics and Military, released on Wednesday last week by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
In a chapter titled “People’s Liberation Army’s amphibious assault capabilities in a potential Taiwan invasion,” the report also gave a projection of the first wave of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Photo courtesy of Chuang Chuan-cheng
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is likely to start with an amphibious assault with about 30,000 troops, including a special operations brigade, transport aviation brigade and combat support brigade, as well as six airborne brigades, the report said.
After the first wave, the PLA would face difficulties in handling Taiwan’s terrain and resupply, said academic Ou Si-fu (歐錫富), writer of the chapter, who heads the think tank’s Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts.
“When they land, they will immediately encounter mountains, hills and towns, which are not conducive to large-scale mechanized troop movements,” Ou said.
As an alternative, the PLA might switch to airborne assaults in a bid to seize Taiwanese ports, airports and other strategic infrastructure to facilitate rapid deployment of its troops by sea and air, Ou said.
However, attempted landings from the air are extremely risky, he said, citing the recent example of Ukraine repelling Russia’s airborne attacks by using a relatively small number of defensive troops.
Therefore, Taiwan’s defense of its seaports and airports should be a priority, even if it means sealing them off and destroying runways to prevent landings by the attackers, Ou said.
He also said that if the PLA launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, it would deploy large numbers of missiles to paralyze Taiwan’s command and control systems.
The main defense strategy in that regard should be to decentralize Taiwan’s military command, spreading out the decisionmaking among multiple leaders in a complex and rapidly changing system, Ou said.
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