September’s export expansion was not an isolated incident, but sign of a nascent recovery that would grow more evident and reliable from this quarter as inventory adjustments draw to an end, Minister of Finance Chuang Tsui-yun (莊翠雲) said yesterday.
Chuang shared her observations at a meeting of the legislature’s Finance Committee in which lawmakers raised concern over the health of Taiwan’s economy after exports slipped back into contraction mode in October.
“The positive growth in [September] exports is not transient, with export value forecast to exceed NT$30 billion [US$955 million] every month this quarter, lifting the full-year figure past the NT$400 billion mark, the third highest in history,” Chuang said.
Photo: Chu Pei-hsiung, Taipei Times
The Ministry of Finance is to release last month’s export data on Friday. It has forecast an uptick of 3 to 6 percent from a year earlier, supported by restocking demand ahead of the Christmas season and a sustained boom in artificial intelligence (AI) applications.
Taiwan is home to the world’s largest suppliers of electronics used in smartphones, personal computers and vehicles, as well as servers and graphic cards used in AI equipment and solutions.
Exports in the first 10 months of this year totaled NT$355.1 billion, making it easy for the full-year number to surpass the NT$400 billion threshold, Chuang said.
Major tech firms have also provided positive guidance for their business prospects this quarter and beyond, citing brightening end-market demand amid lingering uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation and restrictive monetary policies.
Chuang agreed that it was too early to be optimistic, and companies at home and abroad largely maintain a cautious approach.
Global research institutes expect the US to see an economic slowdown next year after putting up stronger-than-expected GDP showings this year. China poses another source of unease amid ongoing global supply chain realignment, capital outflows and risks linked to its property and financial sectors.
The two largest economies account for more than 50 percent of Taiwanese exports.
State-run banks have cut exposure to China to NT$214.3 billion, or a controllable 12 percent of their net worth, Chuang said.
The finance ministry will step up oversight of risk controls in state-run financial institutions to make sure they are well-equipped to deal with potential bad loans in the Chinese market, she said.
In addition, the ministry said its efforts to boost mobile payments among small retailers through tax breaks hit a snag as only 17,099 businesses signed on from 2018 to this year.
Mobile payments gained rapid growth initially, but soon slowed as small businesses voiced concern over transaction safety and increases in operating costs, it said.
Chuang said she would seek to gain a better understanding of the situation and introduce more effective stimulus measures.
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