China is unlikely to attempt an invasion of Taiwan, as defeat would mean the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party, a former Japanese defense official said on Sunday.
China is also facing food security problems and its military strength remains insufficient for an invasion of Taiwan, Tokuichiro Tamazawa, who formerly served as director-general of the Japan Defense Agency, said during a speech at an event held by the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei.
In a Facebook post, political commentator Akio Yaita quoted 85-year-old Tamazawa as saying that this week’s visit to Taiwan was aimed at “uniting Taiwanese in the face of Chinese projections of strength.”
Photo: Lu Yi-hsuan, Taipei Times
If Taiwanese show determination to defend themselves, democracies worldwide would come to their aid, Tamazawa was quoted as saying.
Tamazawa said that as China imports 5 percent of its food, and since its Belt and Road Initiative has failed to boost its food security as Beijing had hoped, 70 million Chinese face food security problems.
Those food imports are also being threatened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as China previously had obtained 27 percent of its imported grains from the two nations, he said.
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that 60 percent of China’s population eats pork and 1kg of pork requires 30kg of grain to produce, he said, adding that China is also struggling to catch enough fish to meet demand, especially as Chinese fishers are banned from fishing within 200 nautical miles (370km) of Japanese waters.
“Launching a war requires an abundant food supply. If China were to start a war now, it would immediately face food shortages,” Tamazawa said. “You can’t fight a war on an empty stomach.”
He said that the US invasion of Japan in World War II could be used as a reference for how an attempted invasion of Taiwan might unfold.
“The US military had roughly 700,000 troops, 30 aircraft carriers and 300 warships when it initially attempted to take Kyushu, which had a garrison of 200,000 troops,” he said. “Despite its greater numbers, the US was unable to take Kyushu at that time.”
China would need at least 1.3 million to 1.6 million troops to invade Taiwan and it is currently not capable of transporting that number to Taiwan in the timeframe required, he said.
Beijing realizes that an invasion would fail, which is the reason it uses aggressive cognitive warfare tactics against Taiwan, Tamazawa said.
Super Typhoon Kong-rey is the largest cyclone to impact Taiwan in 27 years, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said today. Kong-rey’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) — the distance between the center of a cyclone and its band of strongest winds — has expanded to 320km, CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張竣堯) said. The last time a typhoon of comparable strength with an RMW larger than 300km made landfall in Taiwan was Typhoon Herb in 1996, he said. Herb made landfall between Keelung and Suao (蘇澳) in Yilan County with an RMW of 350km, Chang said. The weather station in Alishan (阿里山) recorded 1.09m of
NO WORK, CLASS: President William Lai urged people in the eastern, southern and northern parts of the country to be on alert, with Typhoon Kong-rey approaching Typhoon Kong-rey is expected to make landfall on Taiwan’s east coast today, with work and classes canceled nationwide. Packing gusts of nearly 300kph, the storm yesterday intensified into a typhoon and was expected to gain even more strength before hitting Taitung County, the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. The storm is forecast to cross Taiwan’s south, enter the Taiwan Strait and head toward China, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The CWA labeled the storm a “strong typhoon,” the most powerful on its scale. Up to 1.2m of rainfall was expected in mountainous areas of eastern Taiwan and destructive winds are likely
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday at 5:30pm issued a sea warning for Typhoon Kong-rey as the storm drew closer to the east coast. As of 8pm yesterday, the storm was 670km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻) and traveling northwest at 12kph to 16kph. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 162kph and gusts of up to 198kph, the CWA said. A land warning might be issued this morning for the storm, which is expected to have the strongest impact on Taiwan from tonight to early Friday morning, the agency said. Orchid Island (Lanyu, 蘭嶼) and Green Island (綠島) canceled classes and work
KONG-REY: A woman was killed in a vehicle hit by a tree, while 205 people were injured as the storm moved across the nation and entered the Taiwan Strait Typhoon Kong-rey slammed into Taiwan yesterday as one of the biggest storms to hit the nation in decades, whipping up 10m waves, triggering floods and claiming at least one life. Kong-rey made landfall in Taitung County’s Chenggong Township (成功) at 1:40pm, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The typhoon — the first in Taiwan’s history to make landfall after mid-October — was moving north-northwest at 21kph when it hit land, CWA data showed. The fast-moving storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 184kph, with gusts of up to 227kph, CWA data showed. It was the same strength as Typhoon Gaemi, which was the most